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On February 6, LME aluminum was hindered on Thursday, and as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 1728 US dollars / ton, up 0.
17%
per day.
The main 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum opened high and fluctuated, with the highest 13680 yuan / ton and the lowest 13635 yuan / ton within the day, closing at 13670 yuan / ton, up 0.
33% from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 19,808 lots, and the daily decrease was 19,587 lots; The position was 85,300 lots, a daily decrease of 1,480 lots
.
The basis was expanded to -160 yuan/ton; The price difference between Shanghai and aluminum in 2003-2004 widened to -25 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: (1) On the 5th, the number of confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas nationwide was 707, down for two consecutive days; The antiviral drug remdesivir has officially started clinical trials
.
(2) The number of ADP employees in the United States increased by 291,000 in January, exceeding market expectations by 156,000, and the previous value increased by 199,000
.
(3) In 2020, the third batch of imported scrap aluminum approval was 1440 tons, and the cumulative approval amount of the first three batches is 284449 tons
.
Spot analysis: On February 6, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13490-13530 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13510 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 50 yuan / ton
.
The intraday market trading is as light as before, and middlemen tend to receive goods, but the holders do not ship much, and the actual transaction is limited
.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the resumption of work downstream has been delayed, and the intraday stocking is not obvious
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 98,442 tons on Thursday, a daily increase of 11,088 tons; On February 5, LME aluminum stocks were 1274550 tons, a daily decrease of 16,600 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2003 contract were 55448 lots, minus 375 lots per day, short positions were 62982 lots, minus 186 lots per day, net short positions were 7534 lots, a daily increase of 189 lots, long and short were reduced, and net short increased
.
Market research and judgment: On February 6, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 2003 opened high.
The number of confirmed cases in non-Hubei areas across the country fell for two consecutive days, and the antiviral drug remdesivir has officially begun clinical trials, and market sentiment has improved, which is positive for aluminum prices
.
However, domestic electrolytic aluminum inventories continue to increase, and the recent dematerialization of Lun aluminum inventories has also slowed down significantly, and inventory pressure has increased; The number of ADP employment in the United States increased by 291,000 more than expected in January, the dollar index continued to be strong, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices was weak
.
In terms of spot, intraday market trading is as light as before, and middlemen tend to receive goods, but holders do not ship much, and the actual transaction is limited
.
Due to the impact of the epidemic, the resumption of work downstream has been delayed, and the intraday stocking is not obvious
.
Technically, the daily KDJ of the mainstream 2003 contract of Shanghai aluminum turned upwards, reducing positions and shrinking, and it is expected that the short-term shock will rise
slightly.
