The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is under pressure to the downside, and the downstream performance is still calm

Market focus: (1) The minutes of the Fed meeting show that at the policy meeting that month, Fed officials expressed confidence in the US economy and believed that interest rates are likely to remain unchanged
for some time.
(2) The People's Bank of China lowered the 1-year LPR by 10 basis points to 4.
05% and the LPR over 5 years by 5 basis points to 4.
75%.

(3) WBMS data, the global primary aluminum market was oversupplied by 685,000 tons in 2019 and 118,000 tons in 2018
.

Spot analysis: On February 20, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13590-13630 yuan / ton, with an average price of 13610 yuan / ton, unchanged from the previous day
.
Holders actively shipped goods during the day, but helplessly the middlemen were not enthusiastic about receiving goods, the two sides showed a stalemate on the transaction price, as the aluminum price fell before the afternoon, the holder's quotation also fell, and the actual transaction between the buyer and seller was average
.
The downstream performance is still calm, and the stocking is not obvious
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 186705 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 13,914 tons; On February 19, LME aluminum stocks were 1,162,300 tons, down 15,125 tons per day, falling for 6 consecutive days
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2004 contract were 73923 lots, an increase of 2620 lots per day, short positions were 89904 lots, a daily increase of 6172 lots, and a net short position of 15981 lots, a daily increase of 3552 lots
.

During the day, the main force of Shanghai aluminum came under pressure in 2004
.
The People's Bank of China announced that the 1-year and 5-year LPR interest rates will be cut by 10 basis points and 5 basis points respectively, promoting the reduction of financing costs for the real economy; And China's epidemic situation showed a downward trend, downstream aluminum companies entered a state of resumption of work, and at the end of February enterprises planned to resume work, which is conducive to the recovery of downstream demand and supports aluminum prices
.
However, strong US economic data and the Fed's optimism about the economy allowed the dollar to continue to climb; At the same time, the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum inventory has accelerated, and there is still an expectation of the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the future, the inventory pressure is large, and the aluminum price lacks upward momentum
.
In terms of spot, the holders of goods actively shipped during the day, but helplessly the middlemen received the goods enthusiastically, with the aluminum price falling before the afternoon, the quotation of the holders also declined, the actual transaction of buyers and sellers was general, the downstream was still calm, and the stocking was not obvious
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai-aluminum 2004 contract can be short around 13,700 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13,750 yuan / ton
.