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On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum 1809 fell under pressure, the trading range was 14095-13970 yuan / ton, and the end closed at 14000 yuan / ton, down 0.
28% on a daily basis, and the daily closing price was close to the low set on June 27 last year, and it is currently effectively running below the moving average group, and the technical pattern is obviously bearish
.
In terms of term structure, Shanghai aluminum continued the positive arrangement of near, low, far and high, of which the positive price difference between the Shanghai aluminum 1808 contract and the 1809 contract narrowed to 70 yuan / ton
.
In terms of external trading, Asia Lun aluminum around 2035 US dollars / ton oscillation sorting, of which as of 15:48 Beijing time, 3-month LME aluminum reported 2035 US dollars / ton, down 0.
27% per day, the performance is far resistant to the decline in Lunzinc (-2.
52%), showing that its performance slightly resisted the decline, at present Lun aluminum is still effectively running under the main moving average group, and the technical support below it focuses on 2000 US dollars / ton
.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index oscillated slightly, basically maintaining the large increase recorded overnight, and is now trading around 94.
67, as the US PPI in June rose more than expected, raising expectations of four interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year
.
However, the US Senate passed a resolution by an overwhelming vote of 88-11 to restrict Trump's tariff powers, raising questions about whether the US decision to impose tariffs on China can be implemented
.
In terms of the market, on July 16, Shanghai aluminum trading concentrated 13850-13870 yuan / ton, for the month discount of 10 yuan / ton to flat water, Wuxi transaction concentration 13850-13870 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 13870-13890 yuan / ton
.
On the last trading day of the 1807 contract of the month, East China inventory increased on Monday, the shipment of holders increased, the middlemen had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and in the off-season, downstream enterprises only purchased according to just needs, and the overall transaction was poor
.
In terms of industry, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that China's aluminum production in June was 2.
83 million tons, an increase of 0.
8% year-on-year and 40,000 tons or 1.
43% month-on-month, and monthly output hit a new high
in more than a year.
At the same time, China's aluminum output from January to June was 16.
47 million tons, an increase of 1.
6% year-on-year, and the data showed that the low domestic aluminum prices did not suppress the enthusiasm of
aluminum enterprises.
During the day, Shanghai aluminum 1809 continued to fall to 14,000 yuan / ton under pressure, as domestic primary aluminum production continued to be high
.
However, the recent continuous reduction of domestic aluminum social inventories is conducive to the rebound of aluminum prices, which will partially limit the decline space
of aluminum prices.
It is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 1809 contract can be sold high and low between 13900-14200 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 100 yuan / ton
each.
