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As of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at $1723.
5 / ton, down 0.
23%
on a daily basis.
The main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum operated in shocks, with the highest 13870 yuan / ton and the lowest 13805 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 13835 yuan / ton, unchanged from the closing price of the previous trading day; The trading volume was 78,600 lots, a daily decrease of 17,624 lots, and the position was 235,500 lots, a daily decrease of 1,966 lots
.
The basis was expanded to 125 yuan/ton; The monthly price of Shanghai aluminum in 1911-1912 was expanded to 55 yuan / ton
.
Market focus: US retail sales report for September was unexpectedly weak, reading well below market expectations and recording its first decline
in seven months.
The EU summit was held locally on the 17th and 18th, Brexit will be an important issue, and market optimism is rising
.
WBMS data shows that the supply gap in the primary aluminum market from January to August 2019 was 262,000 tons, significantly narrowed
from 651,000 tons in January to July.
Spot analysis: On October 17, the spot A00 aluminum quotation was 13940-13980 yuan / ton, the average price was 13960 yuan / ton, and the daily increase was 80 yuan / ton
.
In the past two days, the receipt of goods has been very positive, and some traders have reported that the upgrade of the national VAT system at the end of the month will affect the issuance of monthly tickets, because of the consideration of invoices and long-term orders, they tend to hurry up to purchase the current
month's tickets.
Downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand, and traders do not have many bulk goods downstream, mostly to deliver other traders for transactions or downstream long orders
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 97,186 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,500 tons; On October 16, LME aluminum stocks were 983525 tons, a daily decrease of 2,375 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of the main 1912 contract of Shanghai aluminum are 79361 lots, minus 201 lots per day, 86610 short positions, 2139 lots per day, 7249 net short positions, 1938 lots per day, both long and short are reduced, and net space is reduced
.
Market research and judgment: On October 17, the main force of Shanghai aluminum 1912 oscillated operation
.
The US retail sales data in September was weak, the UK reached a deal to leave the European Union expectations, put pressure on the US dollar, while the downward pressure on the global economy increased, market pessimism increased, while downstream demand performance was weak, aluminum rod stocks accumulated, putting pressure on aluminum prices, but electrolytic aluminum inventory dematerialization continued, supporting aluminum prices
.
In terms of spot, the receipt of goods in the past two days has been very positive, downstream manufacturers mainly take goods on demand, and traders do not have many bulk goods to the downstream, mostly to deliver other traders for transactions or downstream long orders
.
Technically, the main 1912 contract daily MACD green column contraction of Shanghai aluminum, pay attention to the pressure above the 13930 position, and it is expected to encounter short-term upward resistance
.
