The main contract of Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure, and the short-term shock is expected to be weak

Market focus: U.
S.
President Donald Trump said on Friday that he could be "very close" to a trade deal
with China.
South Aluminum Corporation (SALCO) will start producing 100,000 tonnes of aluminum ingots per year in the next Iranian month, and its capacity is expected to reach 300,000 tonnes
per year in the next phase.
Total demand for aluminum foil fell 2.
2 percent to 228685 tonnes in the third quarter, while year-to-date data showed little change at 714251 tonnes
, according to the European Aluminium Foil Association (EAFA).

Spot analysis: On November 25, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 14040-14080 yuan / ton, with an average price of 14060 yuan / ton, up 10 yuan / ton
per day.
Due to the high absolute price of spot goods, the shipment of goods holders is more active, and the transaction between small and medium-sized traders is relatively deadlocked, but a large household purchases nearly 10,000 tons to ease the market transaction pressure
.
Downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay, because it is difficult to recognize the price, and there is not much
replenishment on Monday.
East China's adult transaction today is
acceptable.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 73,290 tons, a daily decrease of 4,743 tons; On November 22, LME aluminum stocks were 1,180,400 tons, an increase of 9,725 tons per day, an increase of 9 consecutive days
.
As of the week ended November 22, aluminum inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 270787 tons, down 10,848 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2001 contract were 63808 lots, minus 2619 lots per day, 72997 short positions, minus 2667 lots per day, net short positions were 9189 lots, daily minus 48 lots, long and short were reduced, and net space was reduced
.

Market research and judgment: On November 25, the main force of Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure in 2001
.
The news of Sino-US trade negotiations is uncertain, Trump's attitude on trade negotiations on Friday turned good, making risk sentiment warm up, coupled with the current electrolytic aluminum spot inventory and aluminum rod inventory are showing a downward trend, the aluminum price has been supported, but affected by the Sino-US signing of the trade agreement is still not determined, the US economic data is strong, the US dollar remains strong, superimposed on the upstream alumina production recovery, inventory accumulation suppresses prices, and electrolytic aluminum production is expected to grow, putting pressure
on aluminum prices 。 In terms of spot, due to the high absolute price of spot, the shippers are more active, and the transaction between small and medium-sized traders is more deadlocked, but a large household purchased nearly 10,000 tons today to ease the market transaction pressure, and downstream on-demand procurement is the mainstay
.
Technically, the main 2001 contract daily MACD red column of Shanghai aluminum retreated, mainstream bulls reduced their positions greatly, and short-term volatility is expected to be weak
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai aluminum 2001 contract can be short around 13830 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 13880 yuan / ton
.