The main contract of Shanghai aluminum fell and fluctuated, and the downstream market performed calmly

Market focus: (1) The new crown pneumonia epidemic has begun to spread around the world, with an average of more than 100 people diagnosed in South Korea in East Asia, Italy becoming the most serious country in Europe, and Iran in the Middle East ushered in an outbreak
.
(2) The IMF lowered its economic growth forecasts for China and the world this year, predicting China's economic growth by 5.
6% this year and the global economy by 3.
2%, respectively 0.
4 and 0.
1 percentage points
lower than its forecast in January this year.
(3) Aladdin news, Yunnan Wenshan Aluminum 500,000 tons, Yunnan Hongtai 2 million tons, Yunnan Shenhuo Aluminum 900,000 tons of hydropower aluminum integration projects have resumed production and work
.

Spot analysis: On February 24, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 13390-13430 yuan / ton, the average price was 13410 yuan / ton, down 130 yuan / ton
per day.
The intraday market is in sufficient supply, the holders are very active in shipments, the market presents a situation of more and less, under the dominance of the buyer's market, the spot discount near noon has expanded slightly, and the transaction between buyers and sellers is general.

The downstream performance was calm during the day, and the stocking was not obvious
for the time being.

Warehouse receipt inventory: the total number of Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts on Monday was 196578 tons, an increase of 3476 tons per day; On February 21, LME aluminum stocks were 1138975 tons, a daily decrease of 11,800 tons, and a decline of 8 consecutive days
.
In the week ended February 21, aluminum inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 409635 tons, a weekly increase of 70,787 tons
.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2004 contract are 77508 lots, minus 926 lots per day, short positions are 98535 lots, daily increase of 1842 lots, net short positions are 21027 lots, daily increase of 2768 lots, more short increases, net space increases
.

The main force of Shanghai aluminum in 2004 fell and fluctuated
during the day.
The domestic epidemic situation has shown positive changes, but the epidemic in Japan and South Korea has spread momentum, the global epidemic risk has intensified, and the market risk aversion has heated up significantly; At the same time, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecasts for China and the world this year to 5.
6% and 3.
2%, respectively 0.
4 and 0.
1 percentage points lower than the January forecast; and the accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks accelerated, and there are still expectations for the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the future, and the inventory pressure is greater, and the pressure on aluminum prices is greater
.
The domestic epidemic situation has improved, downstream aluminum companies have resumed work one after another, and demand is expected to improve, which partially supports
aluminum prices.
In terms of spot, the intraday market is full of supply, holders are very active in shipments, the market presents a situation of more and less, dominated by the buyer's market, the spot discount near noon has expanded slightly, and the downstream intraday performance is calm, and the stocking is not obvious
for the time being.
Technically, the main 2004 contract of Shanghai aluminum increased its position, and the mainstream short position increased significantly, and it is expected that the short-term shock is short
.