The magnitude of the rebound remains to be seen

News: In October, the output of plastic products in China continued to fall month-on-month, but it was still much higher than the same period last year
.
Statistics show that in October 2019, China's plastic products output was 6.
565 million tons, down 232,000 tons, or 3.
41%, and increased by 1.
372 million tons, or 26.
42%,
over the same period last year.
From January to October 2019, China's plastic products output was 60.
983 million tons, an increase of 11.
72 million tons over the same period last year, an increase of 23.
79%.

In October 2019, China imported 38,300 tons of plastic products, up 719 tons, or 1.
91%, and 570 tons, or 1.
51%,
year-on-year.
From January to October 2019, China imported a total of 372,000 tons of plastic products, a year-on-year decrease of 25,656 tons, a decrease of 6.
4%.

In October 2019, China exported 1.
183 million tons of plastic products, up 13,000 tons, or 1.
11%, and a sharp increase of 1.
03 million tons, or 9.
54%,
year-on-year.
From January to October 2019, China exported a total of 11.
61 million tons of plastic products, an increase of 1.
01 million tons year-on-year, an increase of 9.
6%.

In October, the import and export of plastic products increased year-on-year, but the export growth was more obvious, indicating that China's plastic products exports still have rigid demand
.

The PE inventory of domestic polyethylene enterprises (oil + coal) in this cycle decreased in a narrow range, with a week-on-week decrease of 5.
21%.

In terms of varieties, LDPE inventory decreased by 8.
91% week-on-week; HDPE inventory decreased by 5.
17% week-on-week; LLDPE inventories decreased 1.
84%
week-on-week.
The total inventory of PE in the two barrels of oil declined, down 5.
70%
from last week.
Among them, Sinopec's PE inventory decreased by 15.
35% compared with last week; CNPC PE inventories increased by 0.
15%
from last week.
PE inventories of coal-fired enterprises fell slightly, down 3.
76%
week-on-week.
Among them, LDPE inventory decreased by 11.
44% week-on-week; HDPE inventory decreased by 1.
50% week-on-week; LLDPE inventories rose 4.
71%
week-on-week.
Trader PE inventories fell by 3.
73%
week-on-week.

In October 2019, the number of domestic PE imports decreased slightly month-on-month, but it was still higher than the same period last year
.
Statistics show that domestic PE imports in October 2019 were 1.
3365 million tons, down 0.
35 million tons, or 0.
26%.

It increased by 154,500 tons, or 13.
07%.

From January to October, China imported a total of 13.
6848 million tons of PE, an increase of 2.
0042 million tons over the same period last year, an increase of 17.
16%

Spot market: The domestic polyethylene market price fluctuates narrowly
.
Prices of major regional sales companies are mostly stable
.
The trend of linear futures is volatile, the merchant attitude is cautious, the offer is slightly adjusted according to the supply of resources, the downstream atmosphere of taking goods has become weaker, and the market real transaction is mixed
.
As of noon, the North China and East China markets adjusted by 50 yuan / ton; The South China market is temporarily stable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: exchange warehouse receipt reported 1061 lots, intraday - 0 lots; It is in the low-to-middle historical zone
.

Main position: The top 20 long positions in the main contract are 122996 lots, +1073 lots, short positions are 152006 lots, -1283 lots, and the net position is -29040 lots, with a decrease
in net shorting.

Summary: The International Monetary Fund lowered the global economic growth rate in 2019 to 3%, the lowest growth rate in 10 years, which hit market confidence, but crude oil is strongly sorted out, China and the United States are expected to cancel tariffs in phases, and after entering late October, the demand for plastic agricultural film gradually rebounded, and the overall operating rate of agricultural film enterprises last week was +2.
6%
week-on-week.
At the same time, PE social inventories continued to fluctuate and fall, down 4.
09% month-on-month, while polyolefin inventories in major domestic ports also continued to fall, reporting 222,400 tons, down 09,000 tons from last week, and also lower than the same period last year
.
It shows that there is little supply pressure in the market, which has some support
for LLDPE.
The rebound is expected to continue, but the magnitude of the rebound remains to be seen
due to the increase in new capacity.