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Yesterday's Shanghai aluminum AL2012 opened low and then fluctuated slightly upward throughout the day
.
Up 95 yuan, up 0.
65%, the highest intraday 14890 yuan, the lowest 14730 yuan, to the close of 1760 yuan, long positions are most, the market bullish sentiment is strong
.
Macro, this week the White House confirmed that a new round of fiscal stimulus before the US election can not be introduced, market sentiment returned to cautious, the US dollar index rebounded from the low level of the week, as of October 30 at 94.
0287, up 1.
292 from last week, Shanghai copper under pressure; in terms of the epidemic, the epidemic in Europe is still high-pressure, many countries tighten epidemic prevention measures, macro overall, bearish factors
.
On the supply side, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that primary aluminum production in September increased by 7.
9% year-on-year, with a record average daily output; Alumina prices were subdued
with alumina production of 6.
56 million mt in September, the second consecutive month of record highs.
According to data released by IAI, global aluminum production in September was 5.
424 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.
9%.
The profit of supply-side smelters remained high, the industry's production capacity was further released in October, the operating rate of the electrolytic aluminum industry continued to rise, and the supply side was weak
in the fourth quarter.
On the cost side, alumina costs continued to rebound slightly to 12,907 yuan on Friday, and alumina production profits remained at a high level
.
In terms of premium discount: the domestic Yangtze River nonferrous spot premium was slightly lowered to 170 yuan / ton
.
The aluminum premium was converted to $
2.
25.
In terms of stocks, LME stocks yesterday dematerialized 4,950 tons to 1,456,100 tons, the previous stock decreased by 4,431 tons last week to 233,300 tons, and the social bank decreased by 20,000 tons compared with the statistics on October 29 to 669,000 tons,
according to the data on November 2.
Overall, in terms of raw materials, the price of alumina fell slightly, and the current profit of the electrolytic aluminum industry rose slightly, and the overall profit is still in a high position
from a historical perspective.
In the future, the supply side with the acceleration of the resumption of production by aluminum enterprises, the supply side capacity is further released, while the downstream start remains stable, and the new production capacity in October further releases a certain suppression of electrolytic aluminum prices, limiting the upward momentum of aluminum prices, but China's low social inventory still supports aluminum prices
to a certain extent.
Macroscopically, the epidemic has been repeated overseas, and there is uncertainty
about the economic impact of the epidemic.
It is expected that the short-term aluminum price trend will be adjusted in the short term, and the current macro situation will be uncertain, and the strategy will be
mainly wait-and-see.
