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From the perspective of the external holiday shock trend, macro news and its impact on sentiment still dominate copper prices, the European epidemic rebound continues, and the average daily new additions in the United States are also high, the pressure of economic recovery and inflation recovery still has greater uncertainty, although the current market has become accustomed to the atmosphere of "epidemic shrouded", but the changes in the control policies of various countries still affect market sentiment, and hedging with the change of stimulus policies, the US fiscal stimulus policy is still under the deadlock of the two parties failed to land, driving the market wind to swing, It is difficult to see the certainty trend at the macro level, and the copper price shock will continue
.
On the macro front, the current global low interest rates and ultra-loose monetary policy are still more likely to continue in the future, which is a very favorable factor for commodities, the current dollar is higher in the short term, but from the perspective of long-term US Treasury yields, it seems that the US side is still not out of the difficult situation of economic recovery
.
In terms of fundamentals, at present, because Chile and other major producers were still seriously affected by the epidemic in the third quarter, the market is still worried about the supply situation in the second half of the year, but on the demand side, as the most important demand country, China's current control of the new crown epidemic is the most effective country
.
Therefore, it is expected that the probability of sustained recovery of domestic economic activity in the second half of the year is relatively high
.
Prior to this, the State Grid set the 2020 power grid investment plan at 460 billion yuan, but as of the first half of the data, the actual investment amount of the power grid was only about one-third completed, so there is also the possibility
of rushing work in the second half of the year.
It should be noted that at present, copper prices showing a strong trend may stimulate the acceleration of new production capacity or even exceed expectations, which may also suppress copper prices from the supply side
.
