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Last week, Shanghai copper first fell and then rose
.
On the whole, the macro as a whole is still bearish, but it has recently been able to breathe against the background of the weak US dollar; The fundamentals have weakened from the previous strong reality, limiting the upside
of copper prices.
After a sharp decline on the market, it rebounded appropriately, and it is expected to show a trend of rushing back down next week
.
Macro: At the end of October, China's GDP growth rate in the third quarter reached 3.
9%, an increase of 3.
5 percentage points
from 0.
5% in the second quarter.
Endogenous momentum drives the economy up, which in turn drives up base metal prices
.
The dollar continues to retreat and is now below the 106 mark, although the previously released minutes of the Fed's November meeting support the view that the rate hike will slow down from the December meeting to make the dollar rebound in the short term, but the impact still seems limited, and from the federal funds rate pricing, the market expectations for a slowdown in the December rate hike are still large
.
Supply side: Last week, as the spot TC of imported mines continued to rise by 0.
28 US dollars / ton to 90.
83 US dollars / ton, Russia's largest copper mine and the third largest copper mine greenfield in the world, with reserves of about 26.
7 million tons, the company plans to produce 135,000 tons of copper per year in the first production stage, and after full production, the annual output will increase to 400,000 tons, and plans to start exporting products
next year.
A copper smelter in the Fujian market in South China has just completed an overhaul but it will take next week to resume production, so production has decreased
slightly.
Demand side: High copper prices still suppress downstream consumption, and demand performance weakens
.
Stocks: On November 24, copper fell 9,592 tons from the beginning of the week to 36,054 tons
.
LME copper stocks fell 1,100 tonnes to 90,150 tonnes, down 1.
2% from the start of
the week.
The LME has decided not to impose restrictions on Russian metal deliveries, easing the risk of a run, but low global inventories are still marginal support
for copper.
However, high copper prices also suppress downstream demand, and after weak supply and demand and high copper prices, it is expected that the short-term upside is relatively limited, and the probability of falling will increase
.
It is expected that short-term copper prices will fluctuate slightly
.
