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On Thursday morning, the Shanghai aluminum 1707 contract opened at 13805 yuan / ton, the initial short control of the Shanghai aluminum out of the deep V, the low touched 13685 yuan / ton, and then the narrow range fluctuated below the daily moving average, that is, below the opening position, the afternoon news said that the central bank will carry out MLF operations on Friday, the situation of continued tension in the capital is expected to ease, driven by this, the stock market, base metals, black varieties have risen, Shanghai aluminum was also boosted to touch 13860 yuan / ton, closed at 13845 yuan / ton, recorded a longer lower shadow
。 The short-term Shanghai aluminum shock view is maintained, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will continue to try to break through the 5-day moving average resistance
.
In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at 1869 US dollars / ton in the morning, before the afternoon of the Asian market, Lun aluminum around the daily average of 1867 US dollars / ton a narrow range, the afternoon by the domestic market boosted, Lun aluminum up to turn red, into the European trading session, although the trend of aluminum prices has been repeated, but the center of gravity is still steadily moving up, as of 18:45, Lun aluminum reported 1888 US dollars / ton, it is expected that Lun aluminum will continue to try to rise, but need to pay attention to whether it can continue to stand on the 5-day moving average
.
In terms of the market, the futures aluminum bottomed out before the afternoon of the month, Shanghai spot trading concentrated 13710-13730 yuan / ton, the month discount 20 to flat water, Wuxi spot transaction 13690-13720 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot transaction 13720-13730 yuan / ton, smelters are more willing to raise prices, after increasing the proportion of aluminum water output, the actual amount of ingots decreased, resulting in a decline in aluminum ingot output, consumption of aluminum ingot inventory declined
.
Approaching the change of month, the price difference narrowed to 50 yuan / ton in the next month, and the downstream actively entered the market after the price stabilized, and the overall transaction market was relatively active
.
In the afternoon, the market transaction at the beginning of the session was concentrated at 13720 yuan / ton, and then the market rose, and the holder's quotation was basically flat water for the futures of aluminum, and there were few transactions
.
In terms of industry, Russian customs data show that aluminum exports in the first quarter of 2017 totaled 859,000 tons, a slight increase of 7,000 tons over last year, mainly exported to non-CIS countries; Chinalco decided to shut down its Shanxi branch 800,000 tons/year and Chinalco Zhongzhou 250,000 tons/year ore thickening production line, with a total capacity of 1.
05 million tons
.
In terms of inventory, from the inventory of the five places announced by Shanghai Nonferrous Metal Network, it decreased by 31,000 tons from last Thursday to 1.
195 million tons, and the inventory of consumption places began to fall
.
Considering that the current price of alumina has fallen to near the cost line of many enterprises, the signs of production reduction of alumina enterprises may still increase in the future, giving support to raw material prices; At the same time, the profit margin of electrolytic aluminum enterprises is not too large, and the cost will give strong support
to aluminum prices.
With the gradual stabilization of the macro market, Shanghai aluminum may gradually stabilize and rise, but more rises in the later period still rely on the stimulus effect
of policies.
