The macro atmosphere is pessimistic and the center of gravity of copper continues to move downward

On the macro front, U.
S.
jobless claims released overnight were higher than expected, while the U.
S.
core PCE price index rose 4.
7% year-on-year in May, and U.
S.
stocks fell
across the board after the data was released.
At present, recession worries continue to heat up, coupled with the sharp drop in international oil prices to convey pessimism, the decline of non-ferrous metals continues to aggravate
.
Although core inflation in the United States fell overnight, consumer spending fell, market expectations of recession continued to rise, and copper prices continued to fall
.

In terms of the market, Shanghai Metal Network 1# electrolytic copper quotation 62730-63130 yuan / ton, the average price of 62930 yuan / ton, down 1300 yuan / ton from the previous trading day, the 2207 contract reported up 80 liters 150 yuan / ton
.
The intraday spot market transaction has improved, and the premium increased by 55 yuan / ton
from the previous day.
Spot premium first suppressed and then rose, one period of flat water copper mainstream rose 80-90 yuan horizontal transaction, good copper rose about 105 yuan transaction, the second period of the month narrower than the next month, spot premium followed by
upward adjustment.
Copper prices continued to fall, and downstream on-demand consumption was dominant
.

On the demand side, the overall trading volume of the copper spot market this week was light, spot quotations continued to fall, and domestic consumption was still weak, which dragged
down copper prices to a certain extent.
Moreover, under high inflation, the Fed aggressively raised interest rates, the downward pressure on the global economy was greater, and the market was more pessimistic
about global copper demand.

In terms of inventory, LME copper inventories increased slightly, registered warehouse receipts rose simultaneously, the proportion of cancellations fell slightly, and the overall inventory of Shanghai copper warehouse receipts still rose slightly
.

Overall, the risk of a global recession continues to rise, the demand outlook may be deteriorating, and the accelerated pace of interest rate hikes by major central banks has clouded
the outlook for the copper market.
Coupled with the domestic terminal industry is still in a weak situation and copper production continues to increase, Shanghai copper is under pressure to decline, but China's economic data is one of the few bright spots
.
Indicators of factory activity in China rose slightly in June, the first expansion
since February.
But improvement remains fairly weak, and weakness in the housing market continues to weigh on metal demand
.
Copper prices are expected to remain under macro pressure next week and enter a downtrend
.
Short-term focus on 61500-64800.
Operationally, it is recommended to be cautious and not chase shorts
.