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The copper market maintained a wide range last week
.
In the external market, as of the close of October 12, the three-month London copper was reported at 6288.
5 US dollars / ton, up 0.
24%
on the day.
In terms of Shanghai copper, as of the close of October 12, the main 1811 contract of Shanghai copper closed at 50,800 yuan / ton, an increase of more than 1%
during the day.
The recent sharp decline in U.
S.
stocks has dragged down copper price performance and will be the main factor
that will dominate copper prices in the near future.
From a fundamental point of view, factors such as global inventories continuing to degrade and domestic new production capacity have not yet released production have benefited copper prices
.
Under the interweaving of long and short, copper market trading is dominated
by shock ideas.
At the beginning of last week, the copper market performed strongly, but on Thursday, copper prices fell due to the decline in macro risk appetite under the disturbance of U.
S.
stock factors
.
On Friday, affected by the news that the US CPI index in September was lower than expected, the main contract of Shanghai copper futures opened higher, and the market's concerns about the Fed's interest rate hike eased significantly, which was positive for copper prices
.
In terms of news, the chairman of Chile's state-owned company Codelco recently said that China's demand for copper has been so strong in the past few months that Codelco has almost sold out
next year's copper supply ahead of schedule.
It is also reported that the company's Chuquicamata copper smelter is scheduled to stop production for 60-80 days for maintenance
starting December 13.
The news gave a short-term boost
to copper prices.
Domestically, before the National Day holiday, copper concentrate processing fees TC rose by $1 to $89/ton-$94/ton
.
On the supply side, there were more overhauls in September, and from October, new production capacity will be released one after another; On the demand side, the 'gold nine silver ten' effect is not obvious, and the demand performance is flat
.
In terms of premium discount, due to the decline in downstream willingness to take goods, the market discount range has expanded
.
In terms of spot, the recent Shanghai copper rebounded slightly, the market supply and demand performance was sawing, holders were reluctant to excessively lower the premium in the countdown to the month, and traders and downstream bargain buyers were the most
.
In terms of its own supply and demand, global inventories continue to degrade to a low level, and the new domestic production capacity has not yet released production, but the expansion of the refined waste price difference will boost the utilization of scrap copper, but it is also limited by the company's scrap copper stocking
.
At present, fundamentals have once again given way to macro, and copper prices have maintained a weak adjustment
.
Looking forward to the future market, the current macro is intertwined, the fundamentals are slightly more, and copper prices may be mainly volatile in the short term
.
It is expected that in the fourth quarter, under the influence of factors such as the improvement of industry fundamentals, rising inflation and infrastructure construction, the allocation opportunities of base metal sectors such as copper and aluminum will be highlighted
.
