The low volatility of Shanghai copper is more affected by the macro

The spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce issued a statement on the formal implementation of tariffs by the United States: The United States has raised the tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods exported to the United States from 10% to 25%, and China deeply regrets this and will have to take necessary countermeasures
.
The 11th round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations is underway, and it is hoped that the United States and China will meet each other halfway and work together to solve existing problems
through cooperation and consultation.

On a macro level, the recently released Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index (Services PMI) recorded 54.
5 in April, up 0.
1 percentage points from March and the second highest since June 2012, indicating further expansion
of service sector business activity.
The Eurozone PMI data released did not have many bright spots, but it was basically in line with expectations
.
The Eurozone Markit Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) final reading for April was 51.
5, still at a three-month low, although slightly 0.
2 percentage points higher than the previous reading
.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone Markit services PMI was unexpectedly revised upwards to 52.
8 in April, up 0.
3 percentage points from the previous reading but below the four-month high of 53.
3
set in March.
Overall, the global economy is in an important economic renewal phase, and although the economic data is somewhat weak, it has not deteriorated more than expected, especially in recent months
.

From the perspective of industry fundamentals, as of this Friday, SMM clean mine spot TC was reported at $64-67 / ton, down $1.
5 / ton
from April 26.
Copper concentrate nervousness has enveloped the entire copper mine market recently, mainly due to Escondida's source tender price as low as $49.
5/ton in the third quarter, putting invisible pressure
on smelters, especially small smelters.
However, from the perspective of communication, the TC price of $60/ton should be a more important psychological defense position
.
Coupled with the shipment of the Las Bambas copper mine and the commissioning of the Cobre Panama copper mine, it should give a lot of resistance
to the downward TC.
Recently, copper prices have fallen due to risk aversion, resulting in a further narrowing of the refined scrap price spread, and the price performance of scrap copper is relatively resistant, and there is no
price advantage over refined copper.
It is reported that the application for import approval for scrap six types of scrap copper has been officially opened, which indicates that the import of scrap six types of scrap copper will become more and more stringent in the future, which will directly change the pattern of copper use by downstream consumer enterprises, and the consumption of refined copper will be boosted
.

On the whole, copper prices have been more affected by macro prices in the near future, and the trend of negotiations will have an important impact
on copper prices.
But in terms of declining global explicit inventories and marginally improved refined copper consumption, copper prices have no basis for a sharp decline, and activists can consider going long
on dips.