The loss situation of the PC industry is difficult to change in the short term

In the face of continuous losses, polycarbonate (PC) manufacturers have taken measures such as shutdown and maintenance to avoid risks, and on October 21, they hit a new low
of only 41% operating rate.
Manufacturers' willingness to raise prices has increased, and they have raised factory prices, and the PC market is currently stabilizing
.
However, many industry insiders believe that before the demand does not substantially improve, the price of the PC market is unlikely to rise sharply, and the industry's loss situation may continue
.

The market is weak and volatile

According to Meng Xianxing, vice president of Shandong Research Institute of Chemical Industry, the PC price hit a new low in late August, and the mainstream negotiation price of injection grade low-end materials in the East China market was 14,500 ~ 18,300 yuan (ton price, the same below), and the medium and high-end negotiation price was 16,100 ~ 18,500 yuan
.
In September, affected by the high offer of bisphenol A and the increase in the ex-factory price of enterprises, the bullish atmosphere of the PC market suddenly rose, and the speculation atmosphere was strong
.
Coupled with the shutdown of the Languo plastic plant and the production reduction of Lihua Yiweiyuan plant, the bullish atmosphere of traders was further stimulated, and the center of gravity of the offer was higher, with some grades rising as much as 800 yuan per day, and most prices running to the upper level
of 18,000 yuan.
However, at the end of September, the profit order increased with the shipment operation, and the spot price of domestic materials fell
back to a high level.

The PC market recovered in a narrow range after a sharp decline in October
.
Production enterprises cut production and raised prices, which supported the market, and the offer of cargo holders continued to push up, but downstream buying followed up slowly, and the focus of negotiations showed a stalemate trend
.
As of the end of October, the mainstream negotiation price of injection molding grade low-end materials in East China market was 15,400~20,000 yuan, and the negotiation price of medium and high-end materials was 16,900~20,300 yuan, down 27.
06%~40.
66%
year-on-year.

On the supply side, domestic PC production in October was 144,000 tons, a sharp decrease from the previous month; Capacity utilization was 55.
1%, down 11.
01 percentage points
from September.
It is expected that the PC capacity utilization rate will not be significantly improved
in November.
At present, there is still no clear restart plan for Hainan Huasheng and Zhonglan Guosu plants, Wanhua Chemical and Jiaxing Teiren plants will be restarted after maintenance, and Covestro's 550,000 tons/year plant is about to enter the scheduled maintenance period
.
Under the hedging, the domestic PC supply in November did not change much compared with October, and the market may be
dominated by weak consolidation.

The loss dilemma is difficult to change

"The PC industry is not as profitable as it used to be
.
" Wang Haifeng, deputy general manager of Shandong Lihuayi Group, said that in the first half of this year, the average gross profit level of the domestic PC industry was 716 yuan, and the average gross profit margin was 3.
51%, barely maintained above
the cost line.
Since the second half of the year, the average gross profit of the domestic PC industry has dropped to -426 yuan, a decrease of 147.
63%
over the first half of the year.

In terms of PC raw material bisphenol A, the maintenance of the two main factories of Yanhua Polycarbon and Sinopec Mitsui has a great impact on the market supply of bisphenol A.
The maintenance of many large-scale phenolic ketone plants in China or the suspension of production due to power restrictions have also greatly increased the possibility of
bisphenol A upward adjustment.
The "Golden Nine Silver Ten" bisphenol A market rose by 23%.

Affected by this, PC losses peaked in mid-to-late September, and although they have improved since October, the loss is also 514 yuan
.

From the perspective of the market, phenol ketones upstream of bisphenol A are mixed, and the overall range fluctuations are dominant
.
In addition, the overall operating rate of the bisphenol A industry did not fluctuate much, stable around 70%, manufacturers and middlemen mainly supplied long-term customers, and spot followed up with the market
.
The operating rate of the main downstream industries is below 50%, and spot trading shows signs
of weakening.
However, at present, the cargo holders are supported by the cost side, and the low intention is not high, and it is expected that the bisphenol A market will mainly
fluctuate in a narrow range.

Wang Haifeng said that although PC manufacturers' price increases, production cuts and other measures have supported the market to stabilize and have a slight recovery trend, the pressure of loss has eased
.
However, the PC market is also difficult to get out of the independent market, or fluctuate with raw materials, and the loss situation will continue
.

This was mainly due to weak demand

In the industry, weak demand is the main reason for the continued losses of the
PC industry.

At present, although the impact of power cuts has weakened, the new orders of downstream terminal factories have not reached the level of previous years, and the consumption of raw materials is difficult to reach the level
of previous years.
The short-term weakness on the demand side is expected to be difficult to ease
.

From the perspective of terminal consumption, the overall consumption of the electronic and electrical industry is not good, the output of most products has shrunk significantly compared with the same period last year, and the consumption of PCs has also shown a negative growth trend
.
Although the performance of the new energy automobile industry is impressive, it is not enough to reverse the PC market
.

In addition, affected by relevant policies and the favorable macro environment, the number of orders and starts of downstream modification and plate industry have improved, but they still do not meet expectations
.

In the future market, the downstream of the PC is mostly just needed for small orders, coupled with the terminal demand has not improved, it is difficult for the trading parties to put volume
.
In addition, the PC market is full of low-cost supplies, or continue to make profits to facilitate transactions
.