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On Thursday, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded at a low level, with a maximum of 15,975 yuan / ton and a minimum of 15,690 yuan / ton during the day, closing at 15,940 yuan / ton, up 1.
50% from the closing price of the previous trading day; In the external market, LME aluminum rose slightly, as of 15:00 Beijing time, 3-month Lun aluminum was reported at 2018 US dollars / ton, up 0.
70%
per day.
Market focus: (1) It is reported that the UK and the EU have reached a framework for a post-Brexit trade agreement and are currently finalizing the wording
of the agreement.
British Prime Minister Johnson is expected to announce Brexit news at 19:00 Beijing time on the
24th.
(2) The US PCE price index in November actually released 1.
1% y/y, 1.
2% expected, and 1.
2% in the previous month; The core PCE price index in the United States actually released 1.
4% y/y in November, 1.
4% expected, and 1.
4%
in the previous month.
(3) China's imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products in November were 188973 tons, an increase of 158.
6% year-on-year; From January to November, imports were 2438884 tons, an increase of 353%
year-on-year.
Spot analysis: On December 24, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16250-16290 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16270 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 210 yuan / ton
.
Changjiang Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is general, the downstream procurement is on demand, and the overall transaction is average
.
Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 65,887 tons on Thursday, a daily decrease of 1,446 tons, a continuous decline of 28 days; On December 23, LME aluminum stocks were 1,378,100 tons, a daily decrease of 5,625 tons
.
Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2102 contract are 63347 lots, a daily increase of 3105 lots, short positions are 81925 lots, a daily increase of 3322 lots, a net short position of 18578 lots, a daily increase of 217 lots, long and short increases, and net space increases
.
Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2102 low recovery
on December 23.
Concerns have recently increased due to the emergence of a variant of the new coronavirus in the UK; However, the framework of the Brexit negotiations, the strong rebound of the pound, and the weaker-than-expected US economic data made the US index weak again
.
The recent polluted weather in the north has caused some aluminum companies to face production stoppages; And overseas demand is weak and the recent concentrated delivery of copper inventories, aluminum prices lack upward momentum
.
However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level of slight destocking, and there is support
below the aluminum price.
Technically, the main 2102 contract of Shanghai aluminum has a large divergence between long and short, and a double-top pattern appears, and short-term shock adjustment
is expected.