The logic of copper price rebound is still there, but the rebound height is not overly expected

From the relevant data, in China, there is a certain room for growth in investment consumption, which is mainly reflected in the short-term pessimism in the real estate market, the high probability of infrastructure recovery and the stable manufacturing industry
.
The lack of pessimism in real estate investment mainly comes from the expectation of this part of the investment in Jian'an, from the current data, although the performance of real estate sales is sluggish, there is a large gap between the completion of low real estate and the start of high-tech construction, and relevant surveys show that housing enterprises are accelerating the construction period and supporting the construction process
.

From the perspective of real estate investment, 30% comes from land acquisition, and the growth space of land acquisition is already very limited, but 70% of investment comes from construction, and the stabilization of Jian'an will support
the overall real estate investment.
In terms of manufacturing, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises has benefited from the rapid improvement of supply-side reform, while investment has been suppressed to a certain extent due to supply-side and environmental protection, but manufacturing fixed asset investment has begun to rebound
continuously.
In terms of infrastructure, the government has significantly accelerated the issuance of local government bonds and introduced rural infrastructure plans, so there is a greater possibility of infrastructure recovery
.

Since October, domestic consumption has been relatively sluggish, inventories have turned to rise, spot goods have turned to discounts, and the discount range has gradually expanded
.
The reasons for the sharp increase in domestic inventories in October are: First, downstream consumption did show signs of weakening after the holiday, air conditioning fell sharply month-on-month, and automobiles and cables maintained weak performance
.
Second, the marginal increase in supply is obvious, and after the price recovery, the outflow of scrap copper and the inflow of imported copper are more
.
It is expected that at the end of
this year, although terminal consumption is weak and there are not many bright spots under the stimulus policy, there will be no cliff-like decline, and the slowdown in consumption will be gradual.
In addition, from the perspective of supply, the existing inventory of copper scrap is not high, the current scrap copper imports have begun to be highlighted by the impact of tax increases, the momentum of the marginal increase in supply is slowing down, and the possibility of domestic inventories continuing to increase sharply is decreasing
.
In foreign countries, inventories are still declining driven by production
reductions.
Therefore, global inventories have not yet shown momentum for sustained growth
.

To sum up, the current market is too pessimistic, copper prices will not continue to be bad in the short cycle between now and the third quarter of next year, and there may be some rebound
.
There will be certain downward pressure on the downstream consumption terminal of copper, but there will be no fault decline, and the short-term margin of supply will not increase significantly, and the inflection point of continuous increase in copper inventories that the market is worried about has not come
.
The bullish logic formed by copper prices since the end of the third quarter has not been falsified, but the rebound height has been suppressed
due to the lack of macro and micro resonances.