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Trade Service
On Tuesday, the high level of Shanghai aluminum fell
slightly.
Recently, global economic data has continued to improve, market optimism and abundant liquidity have supported strong commodity prices, but the risk of a second outbreak of overseas epidemics is difficult to eliminate
.
At the beginning of the week, the inventory of aluminum ingots continued to decline by 10,000 tons, the outbound volume fell, and the aluminum rod processing fee was reduced
.
The inventory inflection point is coming, and the fundamentals of the aluminum market show signs
of weakening.
However, driven by macro expectations and funds, the aluminum ingot spot market remains strong, and Shanghai aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term under low inventory, and it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.
On the supply side: high profits stimulated the resumption of production, but there was no large release in the short term, and weather factors caused the two plants to reduce production; Cost side: Alumina continued to rise slightly, and industry profits remained at a high level
.
In terms of premium premium: the domestic spot premium has narrowed slightly, and the aluminum premium has expanded to more than 30 US dollars; In terms of stocks: LME stocks edged down to 1.
63 million tons, compared with a slight increase of 0.
03 million tons to 224,000 tons in the previous period, and a decrease of 05,000 tons to 682,000 tons
in the social treasury.
The recent external atmosphere has improved significantly, the economic data of major countries are actually in the stage of month-on-month recovery, coupled with the low interest rate and other capital levels, global risk assets performed well, the Shanghai Composite Index continued to reach new highs, and aluminum prices also followed the market performance stronger
。 As far as its own situation is concerned, the internal and external divergence is again, the overseas economy is in the recovery stage, consumption is improving and inventory is declining, and although domestic demand is stable, it shows a slight decline month-on-month, enterprises are afraid of heights and just need to purchase, spot premium also shows signs of narrowing, and the speed of inventory dematerialization has also slowed down, but there is no large amount of capacity released in the short term, and demand remains stable and inventory continues to go down in the off-season
.
On the whole, the difference between reality and expectations is obvious, the long-short game is large, but there is an obvious cyclical mismatch, and short-term aluminum prices continue to strengthen driven by the overall market, superimposed on low inventory dematerialization, aluminum prices are expected to continue to rise
.
Operationally, it is recommended to follow the trend, but guess too much
.
