The inventory inflection point is approaching, and aluminum prices are expected to come under pressure

Last week, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated
at a high level.
Inventories of aluminum ingots and rods continued to decline, and outbound volumes fell
slightly month-on-month.
It has been two months since the import window remained open, with customs data showing a recent surge in imports and weak exports
.
With the arrival of the off-season, supply is accelerating, consumption is showing signs of weakening, bearish factors are accumulating, and the inventory inflection point will appear
in July.
The short-term spot market is still strong, the spot premium of aluminum ingots exceeds 200 yuan, and the warehouse receipt in the last period is only 92,000 tons, and Shanghai aluminum may remain at a high level in the short term under low inventory
.
It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally for the time being, and continue to hold
the internal and external positive sets.

On the supply side: high profits resumed production, and thunderstorm weather caused the two aluminum plants to stop production; Cost side: Alumina continued to rise slightly, but industry profits remained high
.
In terms of premium discount: domestic spot is strong and premium expands, while the LME maintains a $20 discount; Stocks: LME stocks rose to 1.
65 million tons, down 15,000 tons to 223,700 tons in the previous period, and 10,000 tons to 705,000 tons
in the social bank.

During the Dragon Boat Festival, due to the rise in trade disputes between Europe and the United States and the increase in the risk of a second outbreak of the epidemic in the United States, the global stock market and crude oil showed a certain decline, but the overall performance of non-ferrous metals was strong, and London aluminum rose to the level
of 1600 US dollars / ton.

At present, aluminum prices still maintain strong volatility in the game of strong reality and weak expectations
.
Domestic spot still maintained a relatively strong position, the premium is higher, although the decline rate of inventory has slowed down, but the low inventory has led to the strong ability of holders to hold prices, and the market has also maintained a "squeeze" situation
.
However, based on expectations of subsequent supply growth and slowing demand, it is difficult for aluminum prices to continue to drive its rise
by fundamentals except for financial impetus.
The spot market is also just demand-based, the downstream fear of heights is obvious, and more trading is still between
traders.
As the inventory inflection point approaches, aluminum prices are expected to come under pressure
.
However, it is still the spot market, the plate fabric will continue to maintain a strong pattern, the operation recommends that companies actively sell to lock in production profits, speculation can be above 13800 yuan / ton to test the short, cautious to chase long
.