The international crude oil market looks forward to "seeing the clouds"

Recently, the international crude oil market has been shrouded in
a "fog".

Amid tight crude oil supplies and high oil prices, OPEC implemented a production cut plan to cut oil production by 2 million barrels
per day.
In addition, the European and American restrictions on Russian crude oil are also on the line, these factors have exacerbated the trend of tight supply in the crude oil market, and also made it more complex, uncertain and volatile
.

The superposition of multiple factors has shrouded the market in the atmosphere of "international oil prices may continue to fluctuate at a high level in the future", and when the international crude oil market can "see the clouds" has become a difficult problem
actively explored by all walks of life.

The international crude oil market will continue to be volatile

Supply and demand are the main factors
determining the trend of international oil prices.
In this regard, Jinlianchuang crude oil analyst Xi Jiarui told reporters that in fact, OPEC is optimistic about the demand of the global crude oil market, which can be seen from its annual and monthly reports, they are raising the demand for crude oil this year and next year, but it is impossible to increase production
in a short period of time.
Because it is difficult to maintain the price now, they want the oil price to remain in a relatively high position, if the increase in production and oversupply, the price will fall, they do not want to see the oil price fall
.

Xi Jiarui also said that crude oil is the world's energy, from the supply chain level, OPEC production cuts and Russian crude oil will be embargoed and other factors, may lead to further reduction in energy supply, which has formed a certain support
for the crude oil market and prices.

From the perspective of demand, as the global economies are concentrated on raising interest rates, or causing the economy to shrink next year, this may weigh on the demand for crude oil and suppress oil prices
.
Therefore, under the mutual game of positive and bearish, crude oil prices may show a pattern
of box shocks.

Zhang Jianping, deputy director of the Academic Committee of the Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, also believes that "the impact of OPEC's production cuts on future expectations has intensified
the tension in the entire energy market.
" Coupled with the continuation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, it is estimated that oil will continue to fluctuate
at a high level for a period of time in the future.
At the same time, the energy market landscape has become more complex, and its uncertainty and volatility are also increasing
.
”

Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, told this reporter that with the Fed and European interest rate hikes, it will have a certain restraining effect
on oil prices.
Of course, factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the OPEC production reduction agreement will have some impact on oil prices, but the overall trend of oil prices is stable
.

"Oil prices that are too high or too low are not conducive to the development of the national economy, and it is more reasonable
to maintain a range of $60-$80 per barrel.
" Qiao Dewu, former deputy chief engineer and senior researcher of the Oil and Gas Resources Strategic Research Center of the Ministry of Land and Resources, said that cyclical fluctuations in oil prices are normal
.
Geopolitical factors trigger international oil price fluctuations temporarily, which may break the world energy supply and demand pattern, some countries oil production decline, other parts of the world supply will be filled
.
In general, the world's oil resources, reserves and exploration and development capacity are well
supplied.

Seeking diversity is the way to go

Zhang Jianping believes that at present, China's refined oil price adjustment mechanism is based on international oil prices, and international oil prices may still be at a high level in the future, which will bring some fluctuations
to China's energy prices.
Because China's crude oil is highly dependent on the international market, international oil prices rise, the cost and cost of China's imports are also high, the higher the cost
, the greater our pressure.

In the future, the world's demand for new and renewable energy will become stronger and stronger, and the proportion of renewable energy in the entire energy production and consumption will gradually increase
.
In fact, in recent years, China has been emphasizing the need to accelerate the development and utilization of new energy and promote new energy vehicles, which are very good ways
to cope with the rise in oil prices.
At the same time, in view of energy security issues, China proposes diversified channels for energy imports, optimizes the energy structure on the basis of continuing to expand and consolidate existing channels, and strives to increase the proportion of
renewable energy.

In view of China's emergence as a major energy consumer, Wang Ke, a professor at the Energy and Environmental Policy Research Center of Beijing Institute of Technology, suggested that China can respond to energy price increases
from several aspects, such as accelerating the green and low-carbon transformation of energy, promoting energy trade, and strengthening energy reserves.
At the same time, we will increase the popularization of science education for the people and advocate the saving of energy and electricity in daily life
.

In addition, it is imperative to seek diversification of imports
.
"China is already working to diversify its energy import channels
.
" Zhang Jianping said that China and the Middle East, Russia, Africa, North America, South America and Australia and other countries and regions have different ways of oil import channels to stabilize domestic demand
.