The internal market trend is stronger than the outer market Shanghai copper may fluctuate around 50,000 points in the short term

Medium-term logic: the rigid increase in global copper concentrate supply in the next 5 years is relatively small, and the elastic increase mainly depends on the price, and although the refining capacity is more launched, but limited by the supply of copper concentrate, the actual supply increment is not enough to make the copper price fall again, so the medium-term copper price bottom is expected to be obvious
.

Short-term logic: Before China's new smelting capacity is launched, the spot market is still mainly tight, but the short-term refined waste price spread has been widened, scrap copper returned to consumption, offset some refined copper tension, in addition, smelting capacity has entered the ignition start stage, it is expected that the supply will gradually increase, therefore, copper prices are expected to weaken
.

In terms of the market, on October 8, the premium of the spot market increased compared with before the holiday, mainly because the 1810 contract is about to enter delivery, and the current warehouse receipt volume is relatively small, in addition, from the perspective of the pace of spot premium, the premium of the early cargo owner reported to 150 yuan / ton, but almost all the way down to 60-70 yuan / ton
.
Downstream enterprises are still mainly based on just-needed procurement, and the transaction on the first day after the holiday is general
.
In addition, from the perspective of term structure, with the arrival of the expected new smelting supply, the premium in recent months has obviously begun to weaken, and the market term structure has entered a turning point
.
On the 8th, the refining copper spot import loss narrowed, and Yangshan copper premium remained at 120 US dollars / ton, although some caliber quotations weakened slightly
.

In terms of inventory, on the 8th, LME inventories continued to decline, as the premium of China's surrounding markets was still relatively large, so it continued to attract the decline
of LME inventories.
The warehouse receipts in the previous period decreased slightly on the 8th, but the decline was small, mainly because the absolute volume of warehouse receipts was relatively small, in addition, the intensity of spot premiums was also declining
.
Scrap copper slightly lowered by 100 yuan / ton on the 8th, the refined waste price spread widened again, the current refined waste price difference has been conducive to the consumption of scrap copper, the replacement power of refined copper is re-reflected
.

Overall, before China's new smelting capacity was launched, the spot market was still tight, but the short-term refined waste price spread has widened, scrap copper returned to consumption, offset some refined copper tension, in addition, smelting capacity has entered the ignition start stage, the market has entered the expected stage of supply, in addition, the term structure has begun to reflect this expectation, copper prices are expected to weaken in the future, and the current copper price mainly relies on exchange rates and inventory support
.