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Last week's aluminum price rebound, mainly boosted by the continuous upward attack of the external disk, and the strengthening of the external market short-term lack of follow-up, the internal disk also lacks continuous driving force before the supply reform landing, the inventory of social circulation continues to show a downward trend, the side reflects the gradual recovery of consumption, consumption support, cost support, supply reform expectations provide the underlying expected support, the price is difficult to break in the short term, and it is still in a narrow range
.
Shanghai aluminum closed last week at 14,000 yuan, close to the upper pressure level
in recent times.
Mainly due to the influence of the rumors of national capacity de-capacity at the end of last week, referring to the trend of Lun Aluminum, Shanghai aluminum may have a certain degree of correction when it opens tomorrow morning, or it will be weak in the range of 13600-14100 yuan
.
In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of
the Hongqiao Group incident in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry.
At the beginning of the week, Lun Aluminum began to show a correction under technical pressure, and fell back to the 10-day moving average near $1943 on Tuesday night to find support
.
The pressure of high profit-taking orders is the main reason for
this correction.
Short-term Lun aluminum may turn into the price adjustment stage, pay attention to the support of the 10-day moving average, if the support fails, Lun aluminum may turn into a deeper price adjustment pattern
.
In terms of the market, the pre-holiday spot market transaction increased, the mainstream price in the East China market was close to 13600 yuan / ton, but the discount was still around 170 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price in the Guangdong market rose to more than
13600 yuan / ton.
Although the domestic primary aluminum market is showing a peak season recovery trend, the fundamentals of oversupply have not changed
due to the rising momentum of production growth.
Recently, Shandong aluminum enterprises have experienced capital breaks, Weiqiao was short-selling institutions reported negative news, etc.
or stimulate the market's expectations of supply reduction, coupled with policy production restrictions are still expected, short-term aluminum prices may show a strong oscillation trend, but the upward space is limited
.
Operationally, it is recommended to maintain wait-and-see or band operation
.
Overall, the recent decline in Lun aluminum inventories has been relatively fast, and the successive rise of Lun aluminum has also given confidence to domestic market bulls
.
When the industry gradually enters the peak season, the long-suppressed aluminum market urgently needs to be released, and the superposition of various factors is conducive to price strengthening
.
On the first day after today's holiday, it is expected that the news of the establishment of Xiong'an New Area will ferment
on the plate.
Therefore, the strategy is to hold
long positions in the early stage.
