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Around the National Day holiday, Shanghai rubber changed the previous decline and continued to rise, in late October in the production area weather problem speculation once rushed close to the 16,000 yuan / ton mark, after which although it fell, but the center of gravity of the futures price operation moved
significantly up.
In the short term, although the supply and demand side of natural rubber itself has not changed much, the increase in new rubber output is lower than expected and Qingdao continues to destock, which will drive the center of gravity of rubber prices to slowly move
upward.
In terms of news, on October 19, 2021, the 2021 Hainan Natural Rubber Science and Technology Service Work Seminar and the "Science and Technology Innovation China" Natural Rubber Professional Science and Technology Service Group Demonstration Project Kick-off Meeting hosted by the Rubber Research Institute of the Chinese Academy of Thermal Sciences were successfully held
in Sanya Yazhou Bay Science and Technology City.
In addition, as far as the macro market is concerned, there is currently more regulation than coal, yesterday the National Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments deployed the clean-up and rectification of coal storage sites in coal production areas, and the State Council issued an action plan
for carbon peaking before 2030.
For both the rubber production side and the supply side, this measure will have a certain impact
on future prices.
With the seasonal increase of new rubber output in the production area, the number of new warehouse receipts has also begun to increase, and the inventory of natural rubber futures warehouse receipts has gradually accumulated, but because the absolute amount of inventory is still at the low level of the same period in the past five years, the pressure on natural rubber warehouse receipt inventory in the short term is limited
.
On the other hand, the low volume of imported cargo has kept the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao to maintain the trend of destocking, and the inventory inside and outside the bonded zone has fallen to the lowest level
in recent years.
As of October 26, the inventory of natural rubber warehouse receipts in the previous period was 212,420 tons, down 8,990 tons
from the same period in 2020.
As of October 15, the total stock of natural rubber samples in Qingdao was 393,700 tons
.
Among them, the stocks in the bonded zone were 68,000 tons, down 46,400 tons from the same period in 2020, and the general trade stocks were 365,500 tons, down 365,900 tons from the same period in 2020
.
In the short term, the supply and demand side of natural rubber itself has not changed much, affected by rainy weather, the output of new rubber is weaker than expected, which boosts rubber prices, warehouse receipt inventory remains low, and Qingdao continues to de-inventory further promote the center of gravity of rubber price operation
.
In the medium term, as the production area shutdown period approaches, the supply and demand side of natural rubber will improve, and if inventories continue to remain low, natural rubber prices are expected to continue to rise
.
