The high level of oscillation before the Shanghai copper festival should pay attention to the prevention and control of risks

In terms of the market, today's domestic spot copper prices rose, Yangtze River non-ferrous metal network 1# copper price was reported at 48180 yuan / ton, up 240 yuan, 180-240 liters; Guangdong spot 1# copper price was reported at 48440 yuan / ton, up 280 yuan; Yangtze River spot 1# copper price 48220 yuan / ton, up 240 yuan, premium 230-liter 250; Shanghai spot 1# copper price was 48155 yuan / ton, up 305 yuan
.

In the spot market, low-priced goods are difficult to find, pre-holiday sentiment is cautious, downstream rigid demand is the mainstay, and the transaction is slightly anxious
.
The tight supply pattern at the mine end continues, overseas demand may gradually recover, domestic inventories dematerialize more than expected, and copper market fundamentals are still supported
.

Industry News:

1.
Indonesian officials said that if the epidemic continues until the end of the year, Indonesia's investment in the US$3.
7 billion smelter project will be delayed to the next year
.
The smelter project includes 18 nickel smelters, 2 copper projects, 7 bauxite smelting projects and other projects
.
Indonesia said that due to the impact of the epidemic, these projects are expected to be completed
around 2023.

Tony Wenas, chief executive of Freeport Indonesia, the operator of Grasberg, the world's second-largest copper mine, said on Sunday that it was on track to switch to fully underground mining by 2022
.
Tony Wenas said: "Around 75% of our operations will be converted to underground mining by 2021 and 100%
by 2022.
”

3.
The first batch of electrolytic copper products produced by the second phase electrolysis project of "Ao Furnace Transformation Project" of Tongling Nonferrous Jinguan Copper Industry Branch successfully rolled off the production line
.
This project, which has a design capacity of 140,000 tons of copper cathode per year, will bring 60,000 tons of copper to the company in the year of operation
.
After reaching the standard of production, the annual output of cathode copper of Jinguan Copper Industry Branch will reach 640,000 tons, becoming the largest single ore copper smelter in China
.

Fundamental changes: 1) Domestic refined copper inventories slightly exceeded expectations, and overseas inventories continued to fluctuate upward; 2) The copper concentrate TC is weak and stable around 51 US dollars, and the epidemic situation in Chile's mines is still in the conceptual speculation stage, and the actual operation of existing mines has not been significantly affected for the time being; 3) Spot premiums in Shanghai have fallen, and spot premiums in Guangdong have risen
sharply due to traffic obstacles.

Shanghai copper continued to fluctuate at a high level yesterday, the main force has not effectively broken through 48000, the shadow line is closed below, and the upward pattern has not yet been broken
.
Copper fundamentals have not changed much, the expectation of weakening demand margin and the risk of overseas supply disturbance coexist, short-term price is difficult to have directional guidance, and the macro is also in a long and short intertwined state, copper prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level before the holiday, considering that the current copper price elasticity, there may be disturbances in the external market in the festival, it is recommended to take a light position over the festival, pay attention to prevention and control of risks
.