The helmet suddenly caught fire!

According to Huang Qiang, the market price of ABS special materials generally rose by more than 1,000 yuan per ton at the beginning of last week.
Compared with the instant detonation of ABS, the rise of EPS is relatively rational, only rising by 100~200 yuan, and the average price of PC market has risen by about 400 yuan.

.

"Objectively speaking, the hype of ABS's sudden emergence is the main factor
.
" According to Huang Qiang, the new domestic ABS production capacity is limited in recent years.
In 2019, the total domestic ABS production capacity reached 4.
28 million tons, and the output was about 4 million tons.
The apparent consumption has reached more than 6 million tons, and there is a certain supply gap
.

In addition, the industry as a whole maintained a high load
.
Last year, the operating rate of the industry was 93.
73%, a record high
.
At present, due to the continuous growth of production and sales profits, the weekly operating rate of the ABS industry has reached 97.
55%
.
From the perspective of demand, with the advent of summer, manufacturers of air conditioners, electric fans, refrigerators, etc.
have just stocking up, which stimulates the demand for ABS
.
Huang Qiang believes that because the operating rate of the industry is close to the limit, the probability of increasing production in the short term is not large, and the rigid demand continues to increase, which brings space for ABS speculation
.

In addition, the macro industry chain has also pushed ABS
.
The recent trend of international crude oil prices is on the strong side, the upstream styrene market continues to push up, and the cost side is also favorable for the rise of the ABS market
.

Insufficient momentum to continue

So, will the myth of the 30-fold increase in 3 months, set by the mask raw material meltblown cloth, repeat itself in the ABS market?

In fact, the actual demand for ABS in helmet applications is not large
.
Shi Hanjian, an analyst at Zheshang Futures, estimated the actual consumption of ABS for helmets: "Assuming the production of 300 million electric vehicle helmets with ABS as the shell material, each weighing 0.
8 kilograms, the estimated consumption of ABS is 168,000 tons, accounting for about 168,000 tons of ABS.
2.
8% of annual consumption is not a large proportion
.
”

The biggest similarity between the rise of meltblown cloth and ABS is the short-term outbreak of demand
.
Mask and helmet manufacturers do not have a lot of redundant production capacity on a daily basis.
When purchasing power is concentrated, it is normal for upstream and downstream raw material prices to rise due to short-term shortages
.

But there is a big difference between the two rises
.
Jinlianchuang analyst Cui Jing believes that relatively speaking, the domestic and foreign demand for masks is relatively large, and the replacement frequency is high.
After the helmet is just needed for a short period of time, the continuous purchase volume is insufficient, and the audience and demand are far behind masks
.
Moreover, a large part of the reason for the "difficulty in finding a single hood" is also due to the fact that terminal manufacturers have been hindered in resuming work and production during special periods, and the production capacity has increased slowly
.

Shi Hanjian said that in the short term, the helmet incident is indeed good for ABS, but due to the different implementation standards for "one helmet and one belt" in different places, it is expected that the hype of helmets will not last for too long
.

More importantly, the abnormal rise in the helmet market has also attracted the attention of relevant departments
.
The Ministry of Public Security made it clear on May 20 that from June 1, the scope of punishment for not wearing a helmet is limited to motorcycles, and electric vehicles will not be punished for the time being
.
Regarding the skyrocketing prices of safety helmets sold by some companies and platforms, the Ministry of Public Security attaches great importance to it, actively communicates with the State Administration for Market Regulation, and instructs local public security organs to actively cooperate with market supervision departments to strictly investigate price violations in accordance with the law, and stop driving up helmet prices.
illegal chain
.

In addition, previous illegal acts of driving up the prices of anti-epidemic materials such as meltblown cloth, spunbond non-woven fabric, and polypropylene modified materials were investigated and punished.
Later, there were many cases of excessive stockpiling of goods leading to losses, and speculators chased up to hype the concept of helmets.
Or more rationally, ABS will soon cool down after the skyrocketing rise
.