The heating season is more uncertain, and the aluminum market is cautiously bullish

In terms of alumina, Xinfa Chemical's 1 million tons of production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected to achieve output release in September and complete the release
in October.
Huaqing 300,000 tons, Tianyuan Chemical 50,000 tons of new production capacity has been put into operation
.
Weiqiao Group is expected to start production in September, but it has not yet begun to be launched, and it is expected to land in October
.
The supply pressure of alumina in the fourth quarter was still large, which put some pressure
on the price of alumina.
With the inflow of imported mines and the launch of new production capacity, the rise or slowdown of alumina may slow down, and the cost of electrolytic aluminum in the later period may come from the cost of
electricity and anodes.
However, if foreign supply has not been eased and the price difference between domestic and foreign prices is maintained, it may continue to drive the number of domestic alumina exports to foreign countries
.
Comprehensive judgment, it is expected that the price of alumina in the fourth quarter will fluctuate
between 3000-3400 yuan / ton.

In terms of electrolytic aluminum, electrolytic aluminum enterprises have reduced production by nearly 1 million tons so far this year, and a total of 120,000 tons have been determined to reduce production subsequently, and the production reduction caused by losses so far this year accounts for more than half, and the monthly loss in areas with higher costs even reaches more than
2,000 yuan.
Therefore, if the price of electrolytic aluminum remains sluggish in the future, the electrolytic aluminum industry maintains losses, and there may still be a continuous reduction in electrolytic aluminum production
.
It is understood that the cost of low-cost areas such as Shandong has exceeded the current aluminum price, so if the future due to losses lead to electrolytic aluminum enterprises to reduce production and increase
.
In addition, under the expectation of rising costs of electrolytic aluminum, it is expected that the enthusiasm of new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum enterprises in the fourth quarter may be hindered
.
Since late March this year, the social inventory of aluminum ingots has fallen by nearly 710,000 tons
.
According to historical statistics, aluminum ingot destocking will last about 16 weeks, that is, from the end of March to the end of July, but so far domestic aluminum ingots will maintain a rapid destocking state, far exceeding market expectations
.
Under the support of the trend of destocking, it is expected that the decline in aluminum prices in the future will be relatively limited, and under the expectation of the peak season in September-October, aluminum prices may still have a margin of safety for long
.

In terms of import and export, the three major overseas alumina producers, Hydro, Rusal and Alcoa respectively due to environmental protection, trade sanctions, strikes caused by capacity contraction, a total of nearly half of the global alumina production except China, foreign alumina shortage pattern once again intensified, and promoted foreign alumina prices to continue to rise, further leading to the internal and external alumina supply and demand side of the strong and weak differentiation, promoting the opening of the domestic alumina export window
.
However, in the later stage, with the inflow of foreign imported mines and the launch of new domestic alumina production capacity, the rise or slowdown of alumina may slow down, and the main driving force on the cost side of electrolytic aluminum in the later period may come from the rise
in the cost of electricity and anodes.
However, if foreign supply has not been eased and the price difference between domestic and foreign prices is maintained, it may continue to increase the number of
domestic alumina exports to foreign countries.

In terms of news, the biggest negative is the shrinkage of the heating season production limit expectations, in September, the state recently released the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and surrounding areas 2018-2019 autumn and winter comprehensive control of air pollution action plan, this year's heating season policy compared with last year, production limit coverage narrowed, and the intensity has also weakened, for alumina and electrolytic aluminum companies that meet environmental protection requirements can even implement the unrestricted production policy, this news came out, so that aluminum prices lack of upward driving force to tighten the supply side
.
In addition, in the case of insufficient production restrictions, the bullish expectation of alumina has also weakened, which has shaken
the cost support that has existed before.

Overall, September-October is cautiously bullish
.
Trump imposed 200 billion tariffs, macro bearish sentiment was relatively released, the consumption season is coming, inventories are expected to remain degraded, and aluminum prices still have a margin of safety for long
.
After October, the heating season is more uncertain, and it is recommended to wait and see
for the time being.