The Great Crisis of the Iranian Nuclear Deal? Iran's disconnection from monitoring and acceleration of uranium enrichment crude oil "big bears" have surrendered

According to CCTV news on June 9, IAEA Director General Grossi said on the 9th that Iran has sent a letter to the IAEA, saying that it plans to disconnect 20 IAEA surveillance cameras and other monitoring equipment
.

On the 8th, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution led by the United States, Britain, France and Germany, intending to limit Iran's nuclear program and put pressure
on Iran.
Iran said it would take resolute and reciprocal steps and that all consequences would be borne
by the sponsors of the resolution.
The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran issued a statement in response to the IAEA's "illegal actions and political reports" against Iran, announcing that from now on, Iran will shut down two IAEA surveillance cameras at its nuclear facilities, namely online uranium enrichment monitoring and flow meter monitoring
.

According to Iran's ISNA news agency, citing sources, Tehran has accelerated the manufacture and installation
of a new generation of centrifuges for uranium enrichment.

The double blow of the Iranian nuclear agreement and the Russian oil embargo caused all the crude oil bears to surrender

The continued high oil prices have caused crude oil bears to give up their last position
.

Over the weekend, two crude oil bears, Citibank and Barclays, adjusted their oil price forecasts, mainly due to the impact of EU sanctions on Russian crude oil and the extension of the Iranian nuclear deal, which means that Iran's crude oil exports will not increase
significantly.

As one of the largest oil shorts, Citibank strategists still predicted that oil prices would fall to $70 a barrel
the previous week.
However, Citibank raised its oil price forecast
due to the delay in reaching the Iran nuclear deal, which may lead to a tight supply in the crude oil market.
Now Citibank expects sanctions against Iran to be lifted in the first quarter of 2023, with exports increasing by 500,000 b/d in the first half of next year and 1.
3 million b/d
in the second half.
Citibank now expects Brent crude oil to be priced at $113/b in the second quarter of this year, up from its previous forecast of $99/b
.

At the same time, another crude oil bear, Barclays Bank, raised its price forecast
on the grounds of EU sanctions against Russia.
Now Barclays expects Brent crude oil prices to average $111 a barrel this year and next, up $11/b and $23/bbl
from the previous increase.

OPEC: It is useless to increase production, oil prices are far from peaking, what is the actual situation?

A few days ago, Saudi Energy Minister Salman said at an energy conference in Bahrain that the current refining capacity is insufficient, and even if the world's largest exporter extracts more crude oil, gasoline and other petroleum products will still be expensive
.

Bahrain's oil minister echoed the remarks, noting that "no new capacity is coming along, and even if you produce more crude, there is no demand, no more refineries
.
" ”

Is OPEC production increase really useless?

Zheng Mengqi, a researcher at Haifeng Futures Energy, said that the current idle production capacity in the Middle East is mainly concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and other countries, and it can be seen from the OPEC+ production increase that even if the United States presses, OPEC+ basically maintained a monthly increase of 400,000 barrels / day or 432,000 barrels / day in the first half of this year, and with the easing of relations between the United States and Saudi Arabia, July and August only slightly increased production to 648,000 barrels / day
.
And the current high oil prices, OPEC still maintains a small increase in production, which further indicates that OPEC's spare capacity is low
.
In addition, global oil demand has fallen sharply due to the coronavirus pandemic, with refineries closing capacity of about 3.
1 million b/d
in the past two years.
Due to factors such as high energy prices and the reduction of carbon emissions, the transformation of consumption structure, global oil demand will further decline in the future, and refineries will be deployed in advance, so that production capacity will continue to decline
.

In addition, the UAE, a major OPEC+ member of the Organization of Oil Producers, said oil prices were "far from having reached" the peak
.
The UAE energy minister said at a meeting in Jordan on Wednesday: "At our current consumption rate, oil prices are far from peaking because Chinese demand is recovering
.
The recovery of Chinese demand will lead to more consumption
.

What is the impact of China's demand recovery? According to Zheng Mengqi, at present, due to the impact of the epidemic in China, terminal demand is weak, and gasoline and diesel cracking is much lower than the same period
of previous years.
Compared with foreign countries, due to the landing of the sixth round of EU sanctions against Russia, the supply-side gap cannot be filled through other channels for the time being, and the domestic supply is relatively stable
.
In the case of relatively loose supply and demand in China, the price difference between crude oil in and outside the plate has widened
.
As the epidemic improves, domestic demand rebounds, and the gap between supply and demand will gradually tighten
.

In terms of the market, at the close of yesterday's noon, fuel oil fell more than 3%, SC crude oil rose more than 2%, and low-sulfur fuel oil rose more than 3%.

U.
S.
oilcloth oil continued to rise sharply on Wednesday, and on Thursday, U.
S.
oilcloth oil has exceeded $122 / barrel
.

Looking forward to the future, Zhang Xiaozhen, an analyst at GF Futures, said that under the current fundamental pattern of insufficient supply elasticity and strong fuel demand, the support below oil prices is still strong, and the performance of oil prices is different from other risk assets and continues to be firm
.
Deduce the follow-up trend of oil prices from financial market indicators, considering that the recent performance of US stocks and MSCIEM are under pressure, if the economy under the interest rate hike policy deduces in the direction of recession, the above indicators continue to decline, it is expected that oil prices will also face greater pressure and weaken
resonance.
Therefore, the inflection point of the subsequent trend of oil prices will rely to a large extent on the economic expectations and the direction of the financial market in the context of the macro environment, and before the economic inflection point appears, oil prices are expected to remain high, waiting for economic signals to point out the direction
for oil prices.

In terms of fuel oil, Li Yunxu, an analyst at SDIC Anxin Futures, believes that the cracking price difference of domestic bonded fuel products is greatly affected by the overseas refined oil industry chain, and at present, the cracking spread brought about by the lack of Russian refining energy is difficult to be solved, in other words, there is a marginal increase in the supply side of crude oil, but it may be difficult to exceed seasonal expectations
on the supply side of refined oil 。 Although the current price difference between low-sulfur fuel oil and diesel has fallen sharply, it is still at a high level of $100/ton, and the spot premium is relatively strong, it is difficult to look short on the low-sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and there is an expectation
of further decline in the price difference between low-sulfur fuel oil inside and outside the plate under the background of the recovery of the operating rate of East China.
In terms of high sulfur, due to the sharp recovery of Russian fuel oil exports in May, the 380 cracking spread returned to a low level, and it is still relatively suitable
as an empty distribution due to the heavy properties of high-sulfur raw materials in the arbitrage configuration.
Therefore, high fluctuations in the high and low sulfur spreads may become the norm, but it is difficult to say the inflection point
at present.

"The United States is currently in the peak gasoline demand season and hurricane season, the refinery operating rate is at a high level, and the cracking of refined oil products is much higher than in the same period
in previous years.
Europe is tight on the supply side due to the embargo on Russian oil, and the cracking is also at a historical high
.
At present, the strategic petroleum reserve is at a low level, commercial crude oil inventories are at a low level, refinery capacity is declining, if OPEC runs out of spare capacity to increase production, crude oil risk resistance declines, oil price fluctuations further increase
.
Crude oil fundamentals are relatively strong, the space below the price is limited, easy to rise and difficult to fall
.
Zheng Mengqi said
.