The geopolitical situation has become more and more tense, and aluminum prices have soared and fallen

Recently, the Russian Federation recognized the establishment of the "Donetsk People's Republic" and the "Luhansk People's Republic", which has further tensed
the atmosphere abroad.
At present, the overseas European energy crisis is still fermenting, and due to the great uncertainty of overseas natural gas supply before the spring season in March, production cuts may expand again
.

In terms of fundamentals, Yunnan, Inner Mongolia and other places have begun to resume production, and the process of resumption of production is different
.
In terms of consumption, downstream consumption just needs a seasonal slow recovery, but considering the current high aluminum prices or suppressing demand, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact
of the epidemic and environmental protection control in the north on the downstream resumption of work.

In terms of inventory, the latest social treasury data shows that inventories have accumulated, with Nanhai, Wuxi and Gongyi contributing the main increments
.
On February 21, domestic aluminum ingot stocks were 1.
081 million tons, 42,000 tons
more than last Thursday.
On February 22, LME aluminum stocks fell by 8,350 tons from the previous trading day to 835,000 tons
.

At present, the threat of the energy crisis to overseas electrolytic aluminum production capacity may continue to the beginning of spring, and with the resumption of construction in various places after the holiday, driven by real estate stock construction, completion and infrastructure projects, consumption can be expected to pick up, but it is necessary to be wary of the fluctuation of market expectations for interest rate hikes in the late first quarter, and it is recommended to unilaterally treat
the idea of bargain hunting and long.