The geopolitical game intensifies The market drive and contradiction of fuel oil itself are not prominent

First, the market review

Yesterday (December 28), the price trend of low and high sulfur fuel oil continued to rise, with the FU2305 contract rising 65 yuan / ton, or 2.
40%, to close at 2772 yuan / ton; The low-sulfur futures 2303 contract rose 50 yuan/ton, or 1.
23%, to close at 4120 yuan/ton.

Second, the fundamental summary

China's gasoline production in November was 11.
737 million tons, down 12.
3%
year-on-year.
China's November fuel oil production was 3.
902 million mt, down 9.
4%
year-on-year.

Fuel oil futures inventories recorded 322,630.
00 tonnes on Dec.
23, up 0.
00 tonnes
from the previous session.

The All-German Automobile Club pointed out that due to the German government's tax reduction policy and car owners reducing driving trips, the current German car fuel price has fallen back to the "normal level"
.

Under the influence of the cold wave, the short pause of some refining capacity in the United States and the rise in residential heating demand will trigger the tight supply and demand of distillate fuel in the United States, and will drive the price of low sulfur to strengthen
in the process of strengthening refined oil.

With EU countries banning imports of Russian products and Russian high-sulphur cargoes flowing into Asia, Singapore's high-sulfur fuel oil market continues to come under pressure
due to oversupply.
However, with the emergence of the low price advantage of high-sulfur fuel oil, there is a certain increase in terminal demand in shipping, refineries, power generation and other terminals, especially with the continuous installation of desulfurization towers, the consumption share of high-sulfur fuel oil in the marine fuel market has further expanded
.

Third, institutional perspectives

Dayue Futures: In the short term, it is expected that fuel will remain volatile and mainly operated

The cost side supports the recovery and the fundamentals gradually improve, and the short-term fuel is expected to remain volatile.

FU2305: Multi-operation in the 2700-2780 range within the day
.

Huatai Futures: The market drive and contradictions of fuel oil itself are not prominent

Recently, crude oil prices have been strong in the context of intensifying geopolitical games, and the prices of high and low sulfur fuel oil have been pushed up
.
However, regardless of the cost factor, the market drive and contradiction of fuel oil itself are not prominent
.
For high-sulfur fuel oil, there is still a contradiction of surplus, and the high floating warehouse has yet to be digested
.
In terms of low-sulfur oil, although the inventory is relatively low, there is no obvious sign of shortage in the market supply, and the production growth trend is gradually becoming clear in the context of the increase in global refinery operations and the beginning of new production capacity in the Middle East
.
In the medium term, we are more optimistic about the market recovery of high-sulphur oil after the contraction of supply in Russia, while low-sulphur oil is subject to pressure
on new capacity launches.
However, the short-term FU warehouse receipt is high, and the disk is suppressed
to a certain extent.
The reality of LU low orders has some support for the market, but it also lacks the resonance
of the international market.