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At present, the fundamentals of the aluminum market are still good, and the supply side is affected by factors such as the pressure on production in Changji region of Xinjiang and Guangxi region in September, and the third batch of reserves is less than expected, and the short-term supply margin is weak; On the demand side, it was boosted by the lifting of power cuts in Henan and the arrival of the "Golden Nine Silver Ten" consumption season, and the short-term marginal strength of consumption
.
Foshan aluminum: 9/3 Nanchu Foshan aluminum ingot quotation 21410-21470 yuan, the average price of 21440 yuan, up 90, up 95
for the month.
Aluminum prices continued to rise during the day, spot sentiment weakened, on Friday time point on the holder of the rise actively shipped to liquidate, the circulation of sufficient supply, premium report -10 ~ 0 yuan, the receiving party to reduce the price for partial replenishment, the overall transaction is acceptable
.
The follow-up price fell slightly, and the holders continued to seek shipments, with a premium of -40~-10 yuan, but there were fewer receivers and weak transactions
.
The spot transaction price is concentrated in 21400-21440 yuan, which is -40~0 yuan
higher than the average price of Foshan in the South Reserve.
Wuxi aluminum: 9/3 Nanchu Wuxi aluminum ingot quotation 21310-21350 yuan, the average price of 21330 yuan, up 100, the month posted 15
.
The performance of the East China market in the day was relatively firm, Shanghai aluminum rose and fell in the morning, the receiver was optimistic about the future market to actively inquire about procurement, the holder of the price shipment, the premium reported 0~10 yuan, the trading atmosphere was better
.
In the later period, the plate fluctuated slightly and stabilized, and many holders still needed to ship near the weekend, and the premium was reported at -30~0, the demand for receiving goods became weaker, and the transaction was not happy
.
The spot transaction price is concentrated between 21300-21340 yuan, which is a premium of -30~10 yuan
compared with the average price of Nanchu Wuxi.
On the whole, the marginal expectation of the fundamentals is still good, and there is a good logical support
for aluminum prices.
Subsequently, considering the annual dumping of 500,000 tons of reserves, the logic of marginal destocking in the fourth quarter is still there, superimposed on factors such as the dry period of Yunnan in the fourth quarter and the demand for overseas long-term purchases, the social treasury at the end of the year may fall back to around 500,000 tons, and we believe that the center of gravity of aluminum prices still has room
to move up.
However, the price is high, the capital in and out frequently, need to be vigilant of the amplification
of fluctuations in the later stage.
In addition, it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the recent backlog of aluminum ingots on Xinjiang stations, the weakening of domestic macro demand, and the reduction of aluminum export tax rebates
.
