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    Home > Chemicals Industry > New Chemical Materials > The fundamentals of base aluminum are still empty, and the fear of heights downstream is obvious

    The fundamentals of base aluminum are still empty, and the fear of heights downstream is obvious

    • Last Update: 2022-12-16
    • Source: Internet
    • Author: User
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    On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum at 1908 opened at 13910 yuan / ton
    in the morning.
    After the opening, the bears took the initiative to enter, and before noon, Shanghai aluminum quickly fell back to near the 20-day moving average, and maintained a narrow range of oscillation
    .
    In the afternoon, long and short positions were closed at 13805 yuan / ton
    .
    As Powell's dovish speech strengthened the expectation of a US dollar interest rate cut, the US index fell sharply and the external metal rose significantly, driven by Lun aluminum, Shanghai aluminum soared higher in the evening, but due to the lack of fundamental support, the morning short entry pressure gradually retreated
    .
    During the day, the inventory of social aluminum ingots turned from a decrease to an increase, coupled with the downward movement of alumina, electricity, anodes and other costs, and the fundamentals of Shanghai aluminum are still empty
    .
    At the same time, it is necessary to be vigilant against the macro favorable to the domestic Shanghai aluminum, and it is expected that Shanghai aluminum will still maintain the rhythm
    of selling short at the high.

    Period aluminum

    In terms of external trading, Lun aluminum opened at $1850 / ton in the morning, which has stood above
    all moving averages.
    During the Asian session, due to the sharp rise on the eve, Lun aluminum fluctuated back, touching 1835.
    5 US dollars / ton at a low level, and Lun aluminum was reported at 1847 US dollars / ton
    as of 15:00.
    After entering the European session, Lun aluminum maintained range volatility, as of 17:09 Lun aluminum was reported at 1840 US dollars / ton
    .
    Affected by the fall of the US index on the night before, non-ferrous metals were generally boosted, and because the Lun aluminum average gradually narrowed, Lun aluminum took the opportunity to cross the upper moving average, and the short-term dollar interest rate cut expectation remains unchanged, it is expected that the short-term Lun aluminum will continue to remain strong, and the shock runs above
    all moving averages.

    In terms of the market, aluminum futures fell at the beginning of the month, and stabilized in the second trading stage and recovered
    slightly.
    The transaction price of Shanghai and tin is between 13790-13800 yuan / ton, the flat water of the month - liter of 10 yuan / ton, after 10:30 with the rise of the futures aluminum, the spot price began to be concentrated between 13800-13820 yuan / ton, the flat water of the month - liter between 20 yuan / ton, the price of the previous day rose by more than 70 yuan / ton, Hangzhou spot price between 13820-13840 yuan / ton
    .

    Due to the recovery of the macro atmosphere overnight, the price of aluminum rose sharply, and the premium did not change significantly, the spot price rose significantly from the previous day, the high price of the holder shipment is active, some hedging enterprises are also active, the middleman is actively trading, plus a large market received more than 6,000 tons, the market transaction is acceptable
    .
    However, the downstream fear of heights is obvious, and the intraday receipt is general, mainly on-demand procurement
    .

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