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Driven by black and crude oil, commodity sentiment was warm, Shanghai rubber was strong and volatile, 01 contract closed up 1.
94%, closed at 15515 yuan / ton, reduced position by 23863 lots, 05 contract increased position by 23572 lots, closed at 15755 yuan / ton
.
On the demand side, the recent downstream start is stable, mostly maintained at 6-8%, temporarily out of the situation of dragging down the fundamentals in the early stage, but the profit drive is insufficient
.
At present, the finished product inventory of tire downstream dealers and retailers is basically saturated, the tire factory destocking cycle is basically over, or it has entered the stage of seasonal active replenishment before the year, and the active accumulation range is expected to be suppressed
due to the high cost of raw materials.
On the supply side, in the next two weeks, the southern production areas of Thailand will be more disturbed by rain, the price of Hat Yai glue will rise to 60 baht/kg for 10 consecutive days, the price of raw materials is at the high level of nearly 5 years, and the cost side is strongly supported; Near the cessation of cutting, factories producing full latex in domestic production areas are striving to grab glue, and the price of rubber in the production area is strong
.
On the whole, the current overseas basically entered the peak production season, theoretically the output of new rubber increased, but the weather interference was frequent, which had a greater impact on the output of proximal raw materials; As of November 22, the inventory of 16 samples of natural rubber general trade warehouses in Qingdao was 265,700 tons, down 24,000 tons from last week, down 8.
3% month-on-month, and 59.
80% year-on-year, continuing to go to storage; The inventory of 17 samples in the region was 64,000 tons, down 00,100 tons from last week, down 0.
16% month-on-month and 45.
67% year-on-year; In the short term, the absolute amount of port inventory is likely to remain at a low level, the inflection point of accumulation is constantly delayed, and the expectation that it is difficult to accumulate significantly in the medium term may be gradually verified, and the fundamentals are favorable or gradually consolidated
.
The short-term supply and demand fundamentals have not changed much, the low inventory support of domestic ports still exists, the near supply in southern Thailand is disturbed by continuous rainfall, the shipping schedule delay is still serious, the demand side has no obvious drag, and the disk is dominated by strong shocks
.
