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On Monday morning, Shanghai aluminum opened at 14130 yuan / ton, after the opening of the bears took the initiative to pressure, the early entry bulls have left the market, aluminum prices stepped down, near the Wansi pass bulls expand the scale of exit, Shanghai aluminum volume diving low touched 13960 yuan / ton, in the afternoon Shanghai aluminum repeated attempts to return to 14000 yuan / ton above the unsuccessful, new short pressure recorded a low of 13950 yuan / ton, the end of the session short concentrated the end of the exit, Shanghai aluminum repair part of the decline closed at 13990 yuan / ton
。 From the recent trend of Shanghai aluminum, long and short are mainly short-term operations, and the background of weak fundamentals, Shanghai aluminum is difficult to form an effective breakthrough, short-term still need to pay attention to the long and short competition
for the 10,400 mark.
In terms of the external market, Lun aluminum opened at 1944 US dollars / ton in the morning, dragged down by the domestic market after the opening, Lun aluminum continued to leak, the low touched 1931 US dollars / ton, the 5-day moving average support was initially shown, the center of gravity of Shanghai aluminum trading slowly moved up, but it suffered strong resistance at the daily moving average, entering the European trading session, Lun aluminum successfully broke through the daily moving average resistance, as of 17:05, Lun aluminum reported 1939.
5 US dollars / ton, pay attention to the sustainability of the 5-day moving average support and the domestic Shanghai aluminum trend
.
In terms of the market, the aluminum fell endlessly before noon that month, and it instantly dived nearly 100 yuan at about 11 o'clock, closing at 13920 yuan / ton
.
Shanghai transaction concentration 13870-13900 yuan / ton, before diving to the month discount 100-90 yuan / ton, after diving due to the spot can not fall, the discount of the month narrowed to 60-50 yuan / ton, Wuxi transaction concentration 13870-13900 yuan / ton, Hangzhou transaction concentration 13910-13920 yuan / ton
.
Aluminum began to fall in the afternoon after rising on Friday night, and the attitude of cargo holders to high shipments is very positive, the circulation is sufficient, the spot discount is not suitable for traders to receive goods, aluminum dives, and downstream enterprises are in a wait-and-see mood
.
This week, facing the demand for the Dragon Boat Festival small and long holiday stocking, the downstream waited for the right price to enter the market, and the overall transaction showed a cautious wait-and-see situation
.
In terms of industry, on the whole, although China's bauxite dependence on overseas ores is high, but from the global scope, there is no shortage, according to the data, in 2016 global bauxite supply and demand is generally balanced, in 2017 global bauxite supply is abundant, there will be no supply gap
.
But from a domestic point of view, aluminum resources are scarce, and for enterprises with bauxite resources, the profitability will be stronger
.
In terms of imported alumina, the volume of imported alumina is expected to rise from 3 million tons in 2016 to 3.
5 million tons
due to high domestic alumina prices.
In terms of alumina demand, the new production capacity of electrolytic aluminum continues to advance, and it is expected that if it is released according to the expected plan, the new electrolytic aluminum production capacity in 2017 will be 3.
1 million tons, corresponding to an increase
in demand for 6 million tons of alumina.
On the whole, the Prospective Industry Research Institute expects that alumina will still be in short supply in 2017, with a shortfall of approximately a shortfall, especially before
the launch of new capacity.
During the day, the main 1707 contract of Shanghai aluminum rushed back down, and the tail market closed at 13990 yuan / ton, the trend is that aluminum prices will continue to fall in the short term, 14000 yuan / ton is the main pressure in the medium term, maintain the idea of shorting
.
