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Recently, the fundamentals of Shanghai rubber are weak, the supply is seasonally booming, and the demand is weak
.
As far as the current fundamentals are concerned, although it is difficult to have a significant correction in rubber prices in the short term, as a rubber investor, there is no need to be too pessimistic
.
At present, the rainfall in southwest China and Southeast Asia has increased significantly, which has a certain impact
on rubber tapping.
However, the epidemic situation in Southeast Asia has shown signs of improvement, which is conducive to rubber exports
.
It is expected that after September, China's natural rubber imports will increase slightly month-on-month, and imports may be repaired
in the later period.
Under the dual influence of dual control of energy consumption and environmental protection factors in the early stage, the trend of black and colored is strong, and the natural rubber is significantly weak
.
At the current basis level, the willingness to shorten the arbitrage market is not strong, and the plate will be slightly corrected
upward.
On the macro front, crude oil has risen recently, a considerable number of chemicals have risen strongly, and natural rubber is expected to adjust
with the trend.
From the perspective of industrial chain, the main producing areas in Southeast Asia are affected by typhoons and heavy rainfall, and the supply will be affected to a certain extent; Qingdao Free Trade Zone spot rubber destocked beyond expectations, and freight rates continue to be high, rubber imports continue to be restricted, the market expects that orders with serious shipping delays in August will arrive at the end of September and October
.
On the supply side, the rainfall in the main producing areas in the coming week will be significantly reduced, and the impact on rubber tapping work is expected to weaken.
Affected by the epidemic, Vietnam's exports fell month-on-month in August, and it is expected that exports in September may still fall month-on-month, and the market generally expects that domestic imports can only increase significantly from October, and Qingdao's inventory maintains a high consumption speed to support
rubber prices.
In terms of demand, downstream tire enterprises have a large pressure on finished products, some manufacturers have limited production, and Shandong is undergoing environmental inspection, and the operating rate will continue to remain low; In addition, from the seasonal factors, the traditional peak season effect of "Golden Nine Silver Ten" cannot be ignored and is expected to gradually appear
.
It is expected that natural rubber will continue to have strong momentum in the short-term market before a large number of imported rubber arrives in Hong Kong
.
