The fundamentals are long and short intertwined, and the Shanghai copper shock is mainly sorted out

On the macro front, the G20 summit is in full swing, and the leaders of China and the United States have held consultations
on trade negotiations.
The United States said it would not impose new tariffs
on Chinese exports.
It also said U.
S.
companies could continue to sell parts to Huawei, and the Commerce Department considered removing Huawei from the blacklist
next Tuesday.
It indicates that new progress is expected in the Sino-US trade negotiations, which will be a great boost
to market sentiment.
While Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has repeatedly released dovish remarks, the probability of Fed interest rate cuts soared in July, and the pressure on China's domestic has become smaller, which is more conducive to the use of domestic policy tools, and the market's macro risk appetite has increased
.

From a fundamental point of view, as of this Friday, Shanghai nonferrous clean mine spot TC was reported at 57-61 US dollars / ton, the average value was 59 US dollars / ton, has steadily fallen below
60 US dollars / ton.
Compared with the previous value, it fell again by 0.
5 US dollars / ton
.
Recently, the strike problem of the copper mine under the Chilean National Copper Company has been properly resolved, although the collapse of the KOV copper mine in the Congo, but the impact on copper mines is limited
.
With such low processing fees and by-product prices, refinery margins are weak, and TC's subsequent decline is expected to moderate
.
Refined copper imports fell sharply in May, with data showing that China's imports in May were 243,000 mt, down 29.
2% year-on-year and 15%
month-on-month.
This is mainly due to the delay in opening the import profit window, and this phenomenon is expected to improve
in the future.

In the first half of the year, the overall shock of Shanghai copper was downward, the decline was not deep, but the amplitude was large, reflecting the characteristics of the intertwining of
fundamentals.
Copper mining energy cycle downturn, global copper supply emergency, coupled with copper demand and macro environment improvement and other factors, copper prices will be strongly supported, the second half of the year or a new round of upward market
.

On the whole, the Sino-US negotiations at the G20 Summit have achieved good news, and the market's macro risk appetite has increased
.
At the same time, electrolytic copper smelting and processing fees have repeatedly hit new lows, inventories have been well degenerated, and copper prices are expected to run
strongly under the resonance of the macro industry.
Shanghai copper temporarily confirmed 46800-47000 important support, support above the short-term test strategy, the future market recommended to rely on 47100 and long, break down the wait-and-see, fall below the range support long idea abandoned
.