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After May Day, the amount of Shanghai rubber rose upward, and the finishing pattern in mid-to-late April was broken, and the long-term bottom is expected to be established
.
Although the problem of "weak demand + high inventory" that plagued the rubber market has not been substantially solved, it has improved compared with February and March
.
At present, bulls' confidence has increased, and most investors have maintained a biased approach
.
In May, the cutting of fundamental raw materials is expected to lead to a shortage
of raw materials compared with the same period.
As of April 30, 2020, the stock of natural rubber in the previous period was 239619 tons, and the warehouse receipt was 235,510 tons
.
Although the decline in inventories is weaker than in the previous month, it still maintains a downward trend
.
In terms of increasing confidence in bulls, the Federation of German Automobile Manufacturers issued a statement on the 6th that German automobile exports were "almost completely stagnant", and 17,600 new cars were delivered to global customers in April, down 94%
from the same period last year.
According to the statement, new car orders in Germany fell 70% year-on-year in April, and international new car orders fell 47%
year-on-year.
Since the beginning of this year, international new car orders have fallen by 25%
year-on-year.
Crude oil prices are also in the recovery stage, oil prices fell back after soaring on the 7th, closing down nearly 2%, but compared with last month, prices have rebounded
significantly.
Cutting in northern and northeastern Thailand, which is expected to be fully cut in May, initially produced low raw materials and tight supply ports
.
In terms of raw materials, the price of concentrated milk is better than that of whole milk, and the pressure on the production capacity of deliverables is not large
.
In terms of synthetic rubber, the price of butadiene stabilized at a low level, and the price of synthetic rubber remained stable
.
Further downside space in the later period is under pressure, but due to the price advantage compared with tianjiao, substitution exists
.
In terms of demand and inventory, affected by the resumption of work abroad, the operating rate of tire factories is expected to recover in the later period, and rubber demand will recover
.
In May, more arrivals are planned, and inventories are expected to remain in
the short term.
On the whole, the current price of natural rubber is low, the fundamental environment is expected to pick up, and the price is expected
to rise.
