The fuel crisis continues, the risk of power outages increases, and the momentum of oil price increases unabated

During the Asian session on October 13, U.
S.
crude oil hovered at $80.
37 / barrel; Oil prices were choppy on Tuesday as traders weighed the impact higher energy prices could have on
the global economic recovery.
Pay attention to the OPEC monthly report and EIA monthly report within the day, if the monthly report shows a decrease in inventories and an increase in demand, oil prices will further extend their rally
.
During the Asian session on Wednesday (October 13), U.
S.
crude oil hovered at $80.
08 / barrel; Oil prices settled in on Tuesday, holding near seven-year highs as traders weighed the impact higher energy prices could have on
the global economic recovery.

The focus of the day is on China's September trade balance, the US CPI annual rate for September is not seasonally adjusted, OPEC monthly crude oil market report, Thursday 00:00EIA monthly short-term energy outlook report, originally scheduled to release Wednesday API crude oil inventory data and EIA data, due to the strengthening of Columbus Day on Monday, API crude oil inventory data at 4:30 on Thursday, EIA inventory data
at 23:00 on Thursday.

Factors affecting oil prices

【Energy shortage expected to boost winter demand】

Electricity prices have risen to record highs
in recent weeks, driven by energy shortages in Asia, Europe and the United States.
Shortages of natural gas and coal as winter sets in the northern hemisphere have prompted some in the power industry to switch to fuels
such as diesel and fuel oil.
Soaring natural gas prices have also prompted power plants to switch fuel from cleaner natural gas to oil
.

Analysts estimate that switching from natural gas to oil power generation could increase crude demand by 250,000 to 750,000 barrels
per day.

Rising energy prices have also increased inflationary pressures
in the recovery of economies.
Data on Tuesday showed that Japan's wholesale prices surged 6.
3 percent in September from a year earlier, the biggest year-on-year increase since September 2008
.

Qatar, the world's largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), told customers on Monday it could not help lower energy prices and supply more fuel to the market; Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at OANDA, said there is still plenty of momentum behind the oil rally, fundamentals remain extremely favorable, and would it be a surprise to see oil prices return to triple digits later this year? Probably not
.
”

Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBCPrivate Wealth Management, said it was difficult to predict what would happen when natural gas prices in Europe reached the equivalent of $250 per barrel of crude oil
.

[UK fuel crisis continues, 10% of gas stations in southeast England are still depleted]

The UK has been facing considerable fuel shortages since last month due to soaring petrol prices and a small number of truck drivers
.

According to news on October 12, the British Petrol Retailers Association said on the same day that at least 10% of gas stations in London and southeast England are still in a state
of depletion.
Brian Madderson, president of the trade association, said the situation in London and the South East remained dire; Most retailers remain concerned that they will not know when they will receive their fuel
.
British media reported long queues at some petrol stations in the UK, with many drivers making panic purchases
amid rising prices.
At the same time, fuel stocks have fallen sharply, and British oil and gas companies have even had to close some of their plants
across the country due to a lack of petrol and diesel.

Last week, European natural gas futures prices set a new record, exceeding $1,900 (about 12,252 yuan) per 1,000 cubic meters, and then fell by $740 (about 4,772 yuan).

At present, the price of natural gas in Europe is temporarily stable at about 1198 US dollars (about
7726 yuan).

[India raises the risk of "power outages" or increases demand]

India's fuel shortage has intensified in recent days, causing widespread concern
inside and outside India.
Coal produces more than 70% of India's electricity supply, so the shortage of coal directly affects India's electricity supply and makes India's electricity prices soar.

According to the Press Trust of India (PTI), central grid data also shows that as of October 7, 16 coal-fired power plants in India had an inventory of "0 days", 30 coal-fired power plants had an inventory of "1 day", and 19 coal-fired power plants had an inventory of "3 days", 9 for "4 days", 6 for "5 days" and 10 for "6 days"
.
India Today said the above figures mean that India is on the verge
of a national power crisis.

[U.
S.
job vacancies fall for the first time this year in August]

U.
S.
job openings fell in August for the first time this year, but remained near record highs
.
As Covid cases have increased, the demand for labor has wavered
slightly.

The U.
S.
Department of Labor's Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) released on Tuesday showed that the number of job openings fell to 10.
4 million in August and was revised upwards to 11.
1 million in July.

Economists polled by Bloomberg have a median expectation of 11 million
.

At the same time, the increase in voluntary departures highlights salary increases, signing incentives and a large number of job openings are driving many people to change jobs
.
Turnover rate rises to record 2.
9%

Although job vacancies have fallen, they remain at a high level
that does not match supply and demand in the labor market.
Businesses of all kinds, from manufacturers to restaurants, are desperately needed for labor, but labor force participation remains subdued
amid ongoing pandemic concerns, school openings, and rising savings levels.
The easing of these factors in the coming months should support hiring, but the exact timing is unclear
.

Negative factors affecting oil prices

[S&P 500 index falls for third consecutive time, US inflation expectations hit record high]

U.
S.
stocks fell, with the S&P 500 falling for a third straight day as investors awaited the upcoming earnings season
.
The New York Fed's survey report shows that consumer inflation expectations have hit a record high
.

Apple is reported that it may reduce the iPhone 13 production target in 2021 to 10 million units
due to chip shortages.
Traders have long worried that supply chain disruptions could hurt corporate profits, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said the inflation spike has lasted longer than officials expected and it is no longer appropriate to call such a rise "transitory
.
" ”

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the conditions for the reduction had been "almost met" and that a key test of market confidence would be the earnings season
, which began on Wednesday.
The quarterly forecast shows a deterioration trend
.
Analysts expect profits for S&P 500 companies to rise 28 percent to $49 per share, down from an eye-popping 94 percent in the previous quarter, according to Bloomberg Industry Research, which would mark the beginning of a deceleration in profit growth, which historically bodes well for weak stock market returns
.

[IMF cuts global economic growth forecast]

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) still expects the global economy to rebound strongly after a coronavirus-era recession, but it is concerned that
the recovery is losing momentum and becoming increasingly divergent.

The Washington-based IMF said on Tuesday that it expects world economic growth to grow 5.
9 percent this year, down 0.
1 percentage points from its July forecast and shrink by 3.
1 percent
in 2020.
The group also left its 2022 forecast unchanged at 4.
9
%.

The IMF warned of increased threats to economic growth, including the Delta variant, supply chain tensions, accelerating inflation and rising food and fuel prices
.
The headline data also masks large downward revisions to forecasts for some countries, especially low-income countries
where vaccine resources are still limited.

In the introduction to the report, Gita Gopinath, head of economic research at the IMF, said that overall, risks to the economic outlook have increased, policy trade-offs have become more complex, and dangerous divergences between countries' economic outlooks remain a major issue
.
”

Among the world's largest economies, the IMF lowered its 2021 U.
S.
economic forecast by a full one percentage point to 6 percent, mainly due to supply constraints, but raised its 2022 forecast to 5.
2 percent from 4.
9 percent
.

Overall, the national monetary economic organization lowered the global economic forecast to highlight the slowdown in economic recovery to limit the rise in oil prices, but in the global energy crisis, especially under the influence of power risks in various countries, crude oil demand may further increase, oil prices rise momentum is still unabated, oil prices pay attention to OPEC monthly report and EIA monthly report during the day, if the monthly report shows a decrease in inventory, an increase in demand, oil prices will further continue to rise
.

At 8:26 Beijing time, U.
S.
crude oil is now at $80.
46 per barrel
.