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On Thursday, the main contract of Shanghai copper 1809 gap opened low and low, and volatility significantly intensified, the lowest touched 48820 yuan / ton, fell back to the level of more than a week ago, but near the end of the market panic has converged, Shanghai copper recovered some of the lost ground, the end of the day closed at 49410 yuan / ton, the decline narrowed to 1.
08%.
In terms of term structure, Shanghai copper maintained a positive arrangement of near low and far high, and the positive price difference between Shanghai copper 1809 contract and 1810 contract narrowed to 70 yuan / ton, indicating that the forward contract is more willing to fall
.
In the external market, the Asian Lun copper rebound was weak, around 6150 US dollars / ton around a narrow range, trading range of 6177-6096 US dollars / ton, of which as of 15:54 Beijing time, 3-month Lun copper reported 6157 US dollars / ton, down 0.
54%
on the day.
In terms of positions, as of July 31, the position of London copper was 307,000, a daily decrease of 868 lots, and this week, Lun copper reduced its position downward, indicating that bulls have insufficient confidence in bargain hunting
.
In terms of the market, on August 2, Shanghai electrolytic copper spot contracts reported a premium of 20 yuan / ton - 70 yuan / ton of water premium, and the trading price of flat water copper was 49060-49190 yuan / ton
.
Morning market holders quoted a premium of 20-50 yuan / ton, and the morning market transaction remained good
.
In the second trading session, the quotation continued to rise, the flat water quotation rose around 30 yuan / ton, and the good copper premium 60-70 yuan / ton, the quotation was firm, but the transaction was slightly slow
.
At the end of the afternoon market, the market fell below 49,000 yuan / ton, bargain buying increased, flat water copper can rise to 40-50 yuan / ton, downstream buying slightly increased, wet copper price reported at a discount of 30 yuan / ton - flat water
.
The intraday market continues to be under the control of sellers, traders maintain a high degree of activity, market transactions are concentrated among traders, and the continuous decline in the market promotes the gradual amplification
of market transactions.
On the macro front, the Asian dollar index continued to rebound, now trading around 94.
8, as the Fed's latest interest rate decision maintained the expectation of 4 interest rate hikes within the year, paying attention to the Bank of England's interest rate decision, the probability of raising interest rates was as high as 90%, or limiting the rise of
the dollar index.
In addition, there are concerns about the escalation of the short-term Sino-US trade dispute, and it is necessary to pay attention to the progress of
the incident.
In terms of the industry, it is reported that the voting results of BHP Billiton's Escondida copper mine in Chile showed that it rejected the proposal of the investor and decided to strike, which is the world's largest copper mine
.
BHP is expected to ask the government to mediate, which will delay strike action by up to 10 days
.
During the day, the Shanghai copper 1809 contract oscillated to 49410 yuan / ton
.
Short-term copper prices will seek trading direction in the continuous speculation of Chilean copper mine strike and Sino-US trade war, long-short trading tends to be repeated, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1809 contract can be sold high and low between 50,000-49,000 yuan / ton, and the stop loss is 450 yuan / ton
each.
