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On the first day after the holiday, the central bank fully raised the winning interest rate of reverse repurchase - the winning interest rate of the 7-day reverse repurchase operation was 2.
35%, compared with 2.
25% previously; The winning interest rate for the 14-day reverse repurchase operation was 2.
5%, compared to 2.
4% previously; The winning bid rate for the 28-day reverse repurchase operation was 2.
65%, compared to 2.
55%
previously.
On Friday, the central bank also raised the SLF rate, raising it by 35 basis points to 3.
1% overnight; Both 7-day and 1-month varieties were revised up by 10 basis points to 3.
35% and 3.
7%,
respectively.
The central bank's disguised interest rate hike shows that China's monetary policy has become neutral and tight, further suppressing the high-priced real estate market
driven by the liquidity feast.
Black commodities led the decline after the holiday, and the market was worried about downside risks
to the economy again.
From the perspective of macro liquidity, the impact on copper prices is bearish
.
In terms of spot, on the first day of market opening trading after the year, most of the supply and demand sides have not yet returned to the market, but the return after the year is based on the expectation of downstream aftermarket replenishment demand, and gradually approaching delivery after February, the holder is determined to narrow the discount, flat water copper around the discount of about 80 yuan / ton quotation, wet copper in order to attract downstream into the market, the discount from 120 yuan / ton to 180-150 yuan / ton range rapidly, individual wet copper due to warehouse type and quality grade difference can be expanded to the discount 200 yuan / ton line
。 Only good copper rarely quoted, tight prices, quotations are firm in the flat water line, even when the plate leaks, the holder has the intention of opening the premium, helpless market responders are few, a small number of consignees are mostly for low-priced sources for speculative insurance, the market is waiting for next Monday to open the curtain
of recovery.
In the afternoon, the low level of Shanghai copper stabilized, the spot good copper did not change, the price was higher than the first line of flat water, some low-end flat water copper discount expanded to 120 yuan / ton, wet copper exceeded 200 yuan / ton, but the festive atmosphere is still strong, and it is more difficult to have a transaction
without inquiry.
After the holiday, due to only one trading day and another weekend holiday, most traders, downstreams, etc.
have not entered normal operation, next week market activity will gradually increase, coupled with the proximity of delivery, and traders are optimistic about the peak season price operation, it is expected that spot premiums have room to continue to climb
.
Overall, copper prices have been greatly affected by the macro market recently, and the confirmation of liquidity inflection points has caused stock markets, bond markets and commodities to fall, and market caution has soared
.
In terms of fundamentals, for the time being, due to the weak influence on the market due to the lack of full recovery of spot stocks after the holiday, the impact of overseas Indonesian mine export restrictions and labor negotiation strikes still need further observation, copper prices fell below the 20-day moving average, prudent operators can leave the market first
.
