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Aluminum prices fluctuated
strongly yesterday.
Domestically, due to the fact that the water level in August in Yunnan is not as good as last year, the local power company is negotiating with local enterprises to reduce electricity, and local electrolytic aluminum enterprises may have the possibility of pressure load reduction of 10%-30%, and need to pay attention to the production situation
in Yunnan and other regions.
On the macro front, the Fed's comments were hawkish, U.
S.
economic data performed better, and the dollar index strengthened
sharply.
In Europe, energy prices have further risen, aluminum smelting is deeply plagued by the energy crisis, and production cuts have further expanded
.
Domestically, PMI data fell short of expectations
.
On the supply side, Sichuan's production capacity suspended due to power cuts is expected to resume production in September, but it will take another 1-2 months from the resumption of production to production
.
In addition, there are rumors in the market that Yunnan may reduce the load of electrolytic aluminum production capacity in the province by 20-30% due to insufficient hydropower
.
On the demand side, the comprehensive PMI index of China's aluminum processing industry in August increased by 0.
5 percentage points month-on-month to 45.
5%.
Among them, aluminum foil, aluminum cable, and acoustic aluminum alloy plates rose back above the Rong-dry line, and other plates remained below
the Rong-dry line.
Enterprise orders are expected to improve in September, or drive the industry's comprehensive PMI to recover
.
In terms of exports, due to the recovery of the ratio of Shanghai aluminum, the primary aluminum import window may be opened, which is not conducive to exports
.
In addition, poor foreign demand has also led to a decrease
in the number of orders from export-oriented enterprises.
In terms of inventory, on August 29, 2022, SMM statistics counted domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory of 682,000 tons, an increase of 03,000 tons from last Thursday's inventory, a decrease of 71,000 tons from the same period last year, and a total of 12,000 tons
from the monthly inventory at the end of July.
Social stocks accumulate slightly, affecting neutrality
.
Overall, the short-term easing of macro sentiment and frequent supply-side disturbances support aluminum prices, but the Fed's interest rate hike cycle has not ended and the degree of demand recovery needs to be verified, limiting the height of
aluminum prices.
