The ethylene glycol market fluctuated at a low level

Since October, ethylene glycol has fluctuated all the way downward after rising slightly under the support of oil prices, and the spot price once fell below 3800 yuan (ton price, the same below).

As of November 1, the price of ethylene glycol fell to 3,774 yuan, a new low
for the year.

From the perspective of crude oil, in November, the Fed announced a 75 basis point interest rate hike as expected by the market, raising the federal interest rate to 3.
75%~4%.

At present, the Fed's monetary policy is still in the channel of rapid interest rate hikes, and the continued tightening policy will suppress demand to a certain extent, which will then bear oil prices
.
In the short term, oil prices will remain volatile
in a wide range.

From the perspective of supply, the supply recovery is obvious
.
At the end of October, Shanxi Shouyang, Maoming Petrochemical, Shanxi Woneng and Hubei Sanning plants stopped, and the equipment of Zhongke Refining and Chemical reduced the negative operation, which made the operating rate of the ethylene glycol industry slightly lower, falling to 55.
26%
on November 3.
However, at present, the Tongliao Golden Coal and Hubei Sanning plants have been restarted, the Zhongke refining and chemical plant has been raised to full load operation, and the new plant of 600,000 tons / year of Shaanxi Yulin Chemical will be discharged in the near future, and it is expected that the supply of ethylene glycol will increase slightly again, and the domestic supply pressure will gradually rise
.

From the perspective of demand, there are expectations
of weakening.
This year's peak season did not come as scheduled, polyester factories affected by high inventory pressure and poor cash flow, always insufficient willingness to lift load, the whole peak season polyester load basically maintained at 80%~85% operation, far lower than the same period of
previous years.
At present, the peak season in the year is nearing the end, and the "Double 11" orders have ended one after another, superimposed on the repeated epidemic in many places in China, which has a certain impact on the terminal textile industry, and it is not ruled out that it will gradually give negative feedback
to the upstream of the industrial chain.
At that time, the pressure of polyester factories will further increase, and it is expected
that the later start will weaken again.

On the whole, ethylene glycol cost support is limited, supply has an increasing trend, and downstream demand will weaken, it is expected that the short-term ethylene glycol market will remain low and volatile, in the medium and long term, it is not ruled out that there is a possibility
of further decline.