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Overseas, the European energy crisis has tightened European aluminum supply, electrolytic aluminum companies have reduced production by about 850,000 tons, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether the tightening of supply due to European energy problems will lead to further expansion
of the shutdown of European aluminum companies.
The geopolitical situation in Russia and Ukraine is disrupted, the approval of the Nord Stream-2 natural gas pipeline project is suspended, and the low inventory and supply of natural gas once again led to a surge in European natural gas, and the price of TTF March natural gas futures in the Netherlands rose by 41% during the day on February 24, closing at 109.
08 euros / MW
.
Natural gas imports from Russia account for about 40% of the EU's total imports, about 30% of EU consumption, and the EU region accounts for 20%
of the total electricity generation.
The EU is struggling to find affordable alternatives in the short term, and high energy prices have led to a significant increase in smelter costs
.
At the same time, Russia is a major international aluminum supplier, Russia is the world's second largest producer of electrolytic aluminum after China, the world's first primary aluminum exporter and the fourth largest aluminum alloy exporter
.
Subsequent Western sanctions on Russian aluminum exports will aggravate the tight supply of overseas aluminum
.
Domestically, the epidemic situation in Guangxi has stabilized in recent days, and production and transportation have gradually resumed
.
There is an epidemic in Inner Mongolia, but the production and transportation of local electrolytic aluminum enterprises are currently normal
.
Yunnan and other places continue to promote the process of resuming production, and there is also news
of the resumption of production in Gansu.
In terms of demand, after the holiday, some downstream processing has been postponed due to the impact of the Winter Olympics and environmental protection, and the procurement is just demand-based, and the aluminum price after the holiday is at a high level, and the downstream receiving is more general
.
In terms of inventory, affected by the epidemic, it is expected that the accumulated amount during and after the Spring Festival will be about 400,000 tons, and the accumulation range may be at a historically low level
.
At present, global aluminum inventories are at a historical low, which has some support
for aluminum prices.
In terms of price, due to the interference of the domestic epidemic and overseas production cuts, it is recommended to treat
it with more ideas.
