The energy crisis is difficult to say that it will end - it is discussed that European natural gas prices have fallen to "negative value"

At a time when the world's major media are talking about the high energy prices leading to the European energy crisis, European energy prices have suddenly bottomed out
.
On October 24, the Dutch Gas Trading Center (TTF) front-month futures closed below 100 euros/MWh, falling back to the price level of mid-early June this year, and even lower than the futures price
at the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Spot prices fell to negative territory, with some European natural gas spot prices falling to -15.
78 euros/MWh on the day, the lowest price
ever.
Overnight, what seems to have been the main driver of Europe's energy crisis disappeared
.
However, the author believes that from the cause of the bottom of natural gas prices, it is difficult to say that the European energy crisis is
still ending.

From the perspective of the fluctuation of European gas prices, the high price of natural gas in Europe since August is due to the fact that in order to ensure the safety of energy use in winter, European countries have locked natural gas sources around the world at all costs, regardless of the price, and received all orders, which naturally led to an increase
in gas prices.
As of October 24, the EU natural gas storage rate has reached 93.
61%, Germany's gas storage rate is 97.
53%, Denmark's is 99.
85%, and the overall load is close to full
.
As a result, European countries can no longer store previously purchased natural gas, shipped liquefied natural gas (LNG) cannot be unloaded, and spot trading is almost impossible, which naturally leads to a collapse in spot prices and even a "negative"
.

However, the focus of Europe's energy crisis is actually on the demand side, in gas
consumption.
Judging from the current weather conditions and natural gas supply, the possibility of a serious shortage of natural gas supply in Europe this winter is extremely low
, with some natural gas demand already limited and heating already began.
However, the main gas used in power generation, heating, and chemical industry is still digesting the high-priced gas
purchased before.
The energy cost of these gas uses is still much higher than in previous years, which does not help to solve the current problem of
high gas energy prices for the time being.
For example, for the European chemical industry, even if natural gas prices continue to be low in winter, the energy cost of enterprises will not fall in winter, and its impact on corporate competitiveness is still huge
.

In addition, the current use of natural gas in Europe cannot withstand any "wind and grass", and it is clear that the crisis is not over
.
This winter's European gas safety is based on countries reducing gas demand by 15%, and only if "heaven is beautiful", that is, there will be no large-scale cold waves
.
At present, except for Russia, the possibility of a cold wave in November in European countries is extremely low, but the heating season from December to March is still difficult to predict, during which other gas consumption in European countries still needs to control gas consumption, and Europe also needs to constantly replenish natural gas stocks
.
For the European chemical industry, many natural gas-based production lines are still not able to recover
anytime soon.
The author believes that the European energy crisis still needs to wait for the completion of a new supply chain excluding Russia before it can end
.