The "dual-carbon" target is good for the three popular tracks——Analysis of the investment trend of the petrochemical sector in 2022 (part 2)

The establishment of the "dual carbon" target in 2021 will have a profound impact on the chemical industry
.

On the one hand, the production capacity of high-energy-consuming industries is restricted, which is conducive to the improvement of the supply and demand pattern and the level of profitability; on the other hand, it greatly improves the prosperity of new energy-related chemicals

Supply and demand mismatch optimistic about the lithium industry chain

Supply and demand mismatch is optimistic about the lithium industry chainsupply and demand mismatch is optimistic about the lithium industry chain

In 2020, the proposal of the "dual carbon" target has become an important indicator for the adjustment and upgrading of China's energy structure
.

Under the background of "dual carbon", the global energy structure is gradually transitioning to clean energy, and policies to help the development of new energy vehicles are frequently introduced in various countries

In the first 11 months of 2021, domestic sales of new energy vehicles have exceeded expectations for the whole year, approaching 3 million vehicles
.

"It is estimated that in 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales will reach 3.

According to Zhang Yongwei, vice president of the China Electric Vehicles Association, China’s new energy vehicle sales will exceed 5 million in 2022 and will reach at least 7 million by 2025
.

The continuous increase in sales of new energy vehicles has driven the continuous increase in the installed capacity of upstream lithium batteries
.

Everbright Securities analyst Zhao Naidi predicts that the scale of domestic lithium-ion batteries will reach 1,645GWh in 2025, with a 5-year compound growth rate of 41%

Photovoltaic huge demand activates raw materials

Photovoltaic huge demand activates raw materials Photovoltaic huge demand activates raw materials

According to data from the National Energy Administration, as of September 2021, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation in China has reached 278 million kilowatts, and the newly installed capacity will be 35 million kilowatts in 2021
.

At present, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation and annual newly installed capacity are both ranked first in the world

　　With the introduction of the "dual carbon" policy, the photovoltaic industry has ushered in a golden age of development, and the photovoltaic-related industry chain has entered a significant expansion sequence
.

Rolled glass is mainly used to manufacture photovoltaic glass, accounting for nearly 20%.

　　In terms of industrial silicon, according to the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Silicon Industry Branch, the total global industrial silicon output is 3.
03 million tons, of which China’s total industrial silicon output is 2.
1 million tons, accounting for 69.
3%; China’s industrial silicon exports account for the total output About 25%
.

In recent years, due to the severe trade situation and the impact of the new crown pneumonia epidemic, China's industrial silicon exports have shown a downward trend

　　Industrial silicon is a high energy-consuming industry, and the utilization rate of industrial silicon capacity in China is less than 50%.
Especially under the "dual control" policy, the total output of industrial silicon is limited
.

Based on the development direction of "carbon neutrality", GF Securities analyst He Xiong believes that in the context of overall carbon reduction and consumption reduction, we can pay attention to the investment opportunities brought by the rapid growth of related chemicals driven by photovoltaic demand, including the growth of photovoltaic glass.

　　Policy drives the upward trend of environmentally friendly refrigerants

Policy drives the upward trend of environmentally friendly refrigerants Policy drives the upward trend of environmentally friendly refrigerants

　　In 1987, the United Nations promulgated the "Montreal Protocol" in order to prevent chlorofluorocarbons in industrial products from continuing to damage the earth's ozone layer
.
The protocol uses Ozone Depletion Potential (ODP) and Global Warming Potential (GWP) as standards to measure the environmental protection of refrigerants
.
At present, there are mainly four generations of refrigerants.
Developed countries will enter the early phase of the third generation in 2019, while China's production is concentrated in the second and third generations of refrigerants
.
At this stage, the production of second-generation refrigerants in China has been gradually reduced, while the Ozone Depleting Substance (ODS) refrigerant R22 is in quota production, and the total quota production is reduced year by year
.

　　On June 17, 2021, the Chinese government formally submitted to the United Nations a letter of acceptance of the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer
.
From September 15, 2021, the Kigali Amendment formally takes effect in China, which means that China's third-generation refrigerants (HFCs) will begin to be bound by the Kigali Amendment.
In addition to the approved projects, the third-generation refrigerants will be There will no longer be new production capacity, and the production and sales of third-generation refrigerants will also be strictly controlled and tightened
.

　　Zhao Naidi believes that with the gradual phase-out of second-generation refrigerants, China's third-generation refrigerant output is expected to maintain a growth trend before 2024
.
In addition, under the constraints of the Kigali Amendment, the production and supply of China's third-generation refrigerants will be gradually tightened.
By then, the supply-demand structure of the third-generation refrigerants will gradually change from a supply-demand balance to a supply-demand balance, and the price of refrigerants will follow.
Up
.

　　Wanlian Securities analyst Huang Kan also predicts that starting from 2022, refrigerant prices will begin to establish an upward trend, and the operating conditions of refrigerant manufacturers will gradually improve from the bottom.
The refrigerant industry may officially usher in a turning year, which is worth it.
Concerned
.