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Shanghai aluminum volatility went higher, the first day after the holiday opened above Wanjiu, spot market quotations slightly discounted and rose, downstream receiving sentiment was not high
.
Recently, the domestic and foreign aluminum markets have continued to rise, with Shanghai aluminum hitting a new high in the past thirteen years, and Lun aluminum breaking the high level in the past three years
.
In the LME market, loose macro liquidity, Cash-3M maintenance premium, and continuous destocking of LME aluminum inventories have effectively boosted LME aluminum prices
.
In the domestic market, yesterday was affected by the holiday to destocking the range is small, but still does not change the overall destocking logic, and the aluminum rod processing fee repaired to the same period of previous years to the high level, the fundamentals of the aluminum market continue to improve, there is a bottom support logic
for aluminum prices.
In addition, the decrease in the number of arrivals at the import end has weakened the impact on domestic supply, and it is expected that the destocking of the social treasury will accelerate
after the subsequent arrival and return to Hong Kong.
At present, it is still overseas macro dominating the trend of non-ferrous metals, inflation trading is still the mainstream, and aluminum ingots are still solid fundamentals, so they are strong in non-ferrous metals
.
And the spot to maintain flat water or discount, reflecting that consumption is relatively difficult to pace up, Thursday social inventory maintained a slight decline, Shanghai aluminum should still be used as a long variety allocation, its supply and demand contradiction is difficult to solve, and storage is still an uncertain factor, high aluminum prices make the terminal more uncomfortable, short-term is still dominated by falling
buying.
Entering May, the warming of the real estate market, especially in the north, also boosted previously weak orders for construction profiles
.
Under the fundamental logic of tightening the marginal growth rate of supply, steady and small growth in downstream starts, and continuous destocking of the social treasury, the upward trend of aluminum prices is still driven, but the current high price will also have an impact on the willingness to purchase downstream just needs, and the possibility of a pullback above the aluminum price is not excluded, but the long-term price trend center of gravity is still upward
.
