The dollar index remained low, and the main force of Shanghai aluminum rose slightly

Market focus: (1) The US Congress has closely consulted bipartisanly and is close to reaching a consensus on the first part of the $748 billion plan, which is expected to be launched
before the Christmas recess of Congress.
(2) At 3 a.
m.
on Thursday, the Fed will announce its last interest rate decision of the year, and the market expects it to be dovish
.
(3) Antaike reported that in this round of heating season, Henan Province and the affected operating capacity fell by 65% month-on-month, which translates to a monthly supply reduction of about 100,000 tons
.

Spot analysis: On December 16, spot A00 aluminum was reported at 16630-16670 yuan / ton, with an average price of 16650 yuan / ton, a daily increase of 110 yuan / ton
.
Yangtze River Nonferrous Metal reported that the supply of goods is still tight, the procurement atmosphere is better, and the enthusiasm of large households to receive goods is acceptable
.

Warehouse receipt inventory: Shanghai aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 78,643 tons on Wednesday, a daily decrease of 777 tons, a continuous decline of 22 days; On December 15, LME aluminum stocks were 1357375 tons, down 275 tons
per day.

Main positions: the top 20 long positions of Shanghai aluminum main 2101 contract are 65059 lots, minus 3489 lots, short positions are 78733 lots, daily minus 4467 lots, net short positions are 13674 lots, daily minus 978 lots, long and short are reduced, net space is reduced
.

Market research and judgment: Shanghai aluminum 2101 rose
slightly on December 16.
Expectations of a US stimulus package and dovish expectations for the Fed kept the dollar index low
.
Serious pollution weather in Henan and other places has recently caused local aluminum companies to face production cuts and production restrictions, putting pressure on downstream demand prospects; Coupled with the recent expansion of import arbitrage, the inflow of overseas goods is expected to increase, and the upward momentum of aluminum prices will weaken.

However, at present, the domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not as expected, coupled with the good performance of downstream demand, Shanghai aluminum inventory maintains a low level and a small destocking state, forming a strong support
for aluminum prices.
Technically, the main 2101 contract of Shanghai aluminum daily KDJ golden cross, pay attention to the 20-day moving average support, is expected to be strong short-term shock
.