The dollar index fell sharply, and the Shanghai copper shock strengthened

In terms of industry, London, March 20, the International Copper Research Group (ICSG) said in its latest monthly report that the global refined copper market was oversupplied by 10,000 tons in December 2018 and was short of 68,000 tons
in November.
For the whole of 2018, copper was short of 387,000 tonnes, compared with a shortfall of 265,000 tonnes
the year before, ICSG said.

In terms of the market, the Fed's interest rate meeting is imminent, the market is not expected to raise interest rates, the US dollar fell below the 96 mark, generally boosting base metals, and the center of gravity of Shanghai copper moved slightly up to 49200 yuan / ton line
。 Near the delivery of long orders, the market bargain buying performance is obvious, the holding of the price to raise the water sentiment further fermentation, the morning market quotation premium 900-1100 yuan / ton, the morning market once had individual holders low price shipments, flat water copper in the premium 880-890 yuan / ton, the market buying strong, the transaction enthusiastic, a rush, so the holder quickly raised, flat water copper quickly rose above the premium 900 yuan / ton, good copper is relatively stable, the quotation to the premium 1070-1100 yuan / ton, Since then, the transaction activity has not further improved, and the market has temporarily stopped, so that the transaction level of 910-1100 yuan / ton has been maintained
.
Downstream inquiry and just need to purchase to maintain stability, wet copper quotation has maintained a premium of 750-800 yuan / ton
for several days.
The source of low-premium water is still attractive, but the willingness of the holders to stand up and premiums is obvious, the supply and demand sides still maintain a tug-of-war situation, the spot premium still maintains a stalemate in the short term, and it is difficult for the market to have room for price reduction before the completion of long-term order delivery
.

In terms of stocks, LME copper stocks stood at 179,275 tonnes on 20 March, down 1,925 tonnes
from the previous session.
As of March 15, 2019, copper cathode stocks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange stood at 264,601 tonnes, an increase of 28,432 tonnes
from the previous week.
From a seasonal perspective, current inventories remain at an average
level compared to the last five years.

The U.
S.
dollar index fell sharply and boosted the copper market
as the Fed's interest rate decision statement hinted that the FOMC would not raise interest rates in 2019 and was expected to raise interest rates once in 2020.
In the spot market, the source of low-premium water is still attractive, but the willingness of the holders to stand up and premiums is obvious, the supply and demand sides still maintain a tug-of-war situation, and the spot premium still maintains a stalemate in the short term, and it is difficult for the market to have room for price reduction before the completion of long-term order delivery
.
On the technical side, the main 1905 contract of copper is still in the volatility range, and the MACD indicator maintains a stable trend
.
Operationally, it is recommended that the Shanghai copper 1905 contract can consider relying on 49,000 yuan / ton to choose the opportunity to go long
.