The divergence of internal and external aluminum prices Pay attention to the impact of inventory and overseas news

In terms of the market, the main trading range of spot aluminum in Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Trading Center (SME) last week was 18280-18680 yuan / ton
.
The premium range is C200-B50 yuan/ton
.
At the beginning of the week, the center of gravity of spot aluminum prices fell, the willingness to purchase downstream bargains increased, the middlemen received goods improved, the spot premium gradually strengthened, and the overall transaction during the week was acceptable
.

On the supply side, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 40.
28 million tons in early October, and the output is expected to be 3.
46 million tons
in October.
Aluminum plants such as Guangxi, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan Baiyinhua and Guizhou Yuanhao continued to provide incremental production resumption
.
Due to power rationing in Yunnan, the current scale of aluminum plant shutdown is about 18%, and the probability of production reduction continuing to expand is low
.
Hydro, Europe's largest manufacturer, plans to cut part of the capacity of two aluminum plants in Norway, and the effect of overseas production cuts continues, and the reduction may continue to expand to 1.
8 million tons
.

In terms of demand, the control of various places led by Henan has become stricter, and the production of plate strip has been greatly impacted
.
The weekly operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream processing leading enterprises fell by 1% to 66.
2%.

Aluminum strip fell by 5.
4% to 74.
6%, and the weekly operating rate of aluminum cable decreased by 0.
8% to 56.
2%; The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy remained stable at 64%, recycled aluminum alloy at 51.
6%, aluminum profile operating rate at 67.
5%, and aluminum foil operating rate at 83.
3%.

The processing fee of aluminum rods was adjusted across the board, with Xinjiang Guangdong Linyi Baotou slightly increased by 40-60 yuan / ton, and Wuxi, Henan Province increased by 110-140 yuan / ton; The processing cost of aluminum rods has risen steadily, Guangdong has remained stable, and other regions have increased by 25-50 yuan / ton; The aluminum alloy is reduced by 50-100 yuan / ton
across the board.

In terms of inventory, in terms of exchange inventory, the LME accumulated a large weekly storage of 202,800 tons to 570,000 tons, and Shanghai aluminum destocking 02,200 tons to 184,600 tons
.
In terms of social stocks, alumina accumulated 75,000 tons to 280,000 tons, aluminum ingots 19,000 tons to 636,000 tons, and aluminum rods 25,000 tons to 77,000 tons
.

At present, overseas geopolitical disputes and political games are still continuing, following the LME sanctions on RUSAL delivery and the United States announcing that it is considering banning RUSAL imports to help aluminum prices jump, commodity trader Glencore delivered a large number of RUSAL positions during the week, and then suppressed aluminum prices
.
The weak recovery of domestic supply margin, the tightening of spot transportation and circulation due to the control of many places, the continuation of real estate fatigue in October, the data of the two major sectors of automobiles and photovoltaics were eye-catching, and the inventory of the traditional accumulation cycle continued to decline the rhythm
.
Recently, the trend of aluminum prices at home and abroad may diverge, Shanghai aluminum is expected to continue to operate strongly in line with the fundamentals, and the external aluminum price has the risk of large fluctuations under the interweaving of redundant information, and continue to pay attention to the domestic social treasury situation and the impact
of overseas news.