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Overnight, Lun aluminum rebounded after falling to a new low, and today opened sharply to a new low and fell below $
1,500.
Shanghai aluminum fell under pressure on the 5-day moving average yesterday, and the technical form was very poor, and it may continue to weaken
with the external market today.
There is cost support for the current price of Shanghai aluminum, but the demand side is poor, the trend of aluminum prices is still weak, the trend has not reversed, and the market may hit a new low
.
The upper pressure of Shanghai aluminum is 12000, and the lower support is 11000
.
The macro aspect is bearish for metals, Saudi Arabia's oil campaign and the continuous impact of overseas epidemics, market panic spread today, led by the external metal killing, the internal metal fell
in response.
However, from the domestic point of view, the resumption of work of specific downstream enterprises gradually improved, but the operating rate is still low, in February, the operating rate of aluminum plate and foil, aluminum profile, aluminum cable and recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has fallen year-on-year, of which the operating rate of aluminum plate and strip foil and recycled aluminum enterprises in March fell month-on-month, and it is expected to recover slightly in March, but it has declined significantly
compared with the same period last year.
In terms of inventory, on April 1, aluminum stocks were 1,164,200 tons, an increase of 15,450 tons
.
On March 30, the national social inventory of aluminum ingots was 1.
709 million tons, an increase of 16,000 tons from last week, and the growth rate slowed
down significantly.
At present, domestic aluminum inventory into the accumulation, aluminum social inventory is currently beginning to carry out more obvious seasonal accumulation, social inventory accumulation to around 1.
68 million tons, the current price of alumina is weak, the smelting cost of electrolytic aluminum is low, the company's profit is expected to make the later electrolytic aluminum production capacity resume worries remain.
Fundamental neutrality: alumina, the previous situation of short supply of alumina reversed, because after the sharp decline in aluminum prices, China's electrolytic aluminum companies are in a loss across the board, some companies began to reduce production or stop production, demand for alumina decreased, alumina prices fell to the 2200-2400 range
.
In terms of electrolytic aluminum, at present, aluminum plants in Gansu, Guizhou and Shanxi have been reduced or overhauled, involving a production capacity of 400,000-500,000 tons, and the scale is not obvious
.
Recently, the market has reported high-cost production capacity reduction information, alleviating some market anxiety, but from past experience, small maintenance has little significance for output contraction, and the market may still be wary of output release
.
The elasticity of supply is less than that of other colored varieties, and from the perspective of the later rebound, aluminum may not be as elastic as other colored varieties
.
In the short term, before the inflection point of the anti-epidemic, the global economy is still in the shadow, and the probability of aluminum price V-shape is not large
.
