The demand side is expected to pick up PVC prices later or rebound

In the macro aspect, wide credit and stable growth are the main tone of the domestic economy this year, and China's GDP growth is expected to be at the level
of 5.
5%.
Premier Li Keqiang pointed out when presiding over the meeting on March 29: "Make good use of government bonds to expand effective investment, promote the replenishment of shortcomings, increase stamina and stable economic growth
.
" "It can be said that this continues to send a positive signal
to the market.
At present, many places have introduced loosening real estate policies; Despite the severe impact of the pandemic on the domestic economy; However, the phased recovery of infrastructure and property market in the later period is still expected
.
The latest statistics show that from January to February 2022, the national cement output was 199 million tons, -17.
8% year-on-year, and +61.
1%
in the same period last year.
It can be seen that the data is extremely unsatisfactory; But this will spur government support for infrastructure and real estate
.
In addition, a total of 1.
82 trillion yuan of local bonds were issued in the first quarter of this year, more than
double the same period last year.

In terms of coal, the government forces coal enterprises to sign medium- and long-term contracts that reach more than 80% of their own resources, and requires prices to be kept within a reasonable range.
As a result, the 2205 contract fell back to the level
of 800 yuan / ton.
At the same time, COMEX crude oil fell sharply (the latest $99/barrel), as the Russian-Ukrainian war seems to have eased, and the conditions for peace talks between the two sides are close; In addition, the United States released 1 million barrels per day of strategic reserves (6 consecutive months).

In terms of spot, the mainstream quotations in East China rose sharply this week to 9300 yuan / ton; The basis is +58 yuan/ton
.
Warehouse orders, the number of futures registered warehouse receipts is 0 lots (all cancelled at the end of March).

In terms of inventory, as of March 25, the total inventory of sample warehouses in East and South China was 328,800 tons; -3.
69% week-on-week; +3.
27%
YoY.
It seems that the inventory pressure is not large, and the "destocking" stage continues
.

In terms of starts, the overall PVC load fell slightly this week
.
As of March 24, the overall operating load of PVC was 82.
2%, -0.
09% month-on-month; Among them, the calcium carbide method was 84.
9%, and the ethylene method was 72.
1%.

According to statistics, the loss caused by shutdown and maintenance this week was 35,200 tons, +12,900 tons
week-on-week.
As April and May enter the spring inspection period, the operating rate will decline
.

In terms of supply and demand, there are still few upstream maintenance devices, and the construction site is at a high level in the same period; Downstream demand is affected by the epidemic and transportation, and individual load reduction; PVC exports are still good (100,000-200,000 tons in March).

In addition, various localities have introduced policies to stabilize real estate and loosen restrictions, so the improvement of real estate can be expected
.
On Thursday, some calcium carbide purchase prices in Shandong, Hebei, Northeast China and other places launched a plan
to reduce the purchase price of calcium carbide by 50 yuan / ton on April 1.
There is a price increase in the blue charcoal market, and the production cost of calcium carbide plants has increased, so the ex-factory price of calcium carbide trade has remained stable
after it has decreased.

In the short term, there are no obvious drivers for PVC fundamentals; However, in the medium and long term, macro expectations are good, and demand is expected to pick up
.
Therefore, the PVC futures market is expected to launch a medium-level rally
in volatility.